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REDMOND, Wash. — might also 18, 2005 — With nowadays’s liberate of Microsoft® element of Sale, small agents can confidently and price-conveniently do what their bigger counterparts all started doing years ago: pull the plug on inefficient electronic cash registers and manual company management strategies.
Microsoft aspect of Sale is a straightforward-to-use, within your means software that allows small, unbiased retailers to music and manage income, stock and client information. Designed to exchange a money register, the newest addition to the Microsoft company solutions aspect-of-sale lineup makes it possible for these retailers to more desirable serve customers by using intently tracking sales traits, and to help keep manage — onsite or remotely — of cash, personnel and company tactics. retailers can use Microsoft point of Sale out of the container with their present computer and peripherals or should purchase finished hardware and application bundles from main know-how suppliers.
“Microsoft point of Sale ranges the competitive playing container for small retailers, empowering shop owners with more advantageous perception and handle of their companies with an easy-to-use, low in cost solution,” stated Mike Dickstein, director of Microsoft company solutions element of Sale options. “we're thrilled to bring an answer these days that enables small retailers to be more successful and efficient of their keep, so that they have got greater time for life outside their keep.”
Rick and Elizabeth Geist don’t miss their historic electronic register or guide inventory monitoring because they adopted Microsoft aspect of Sale at the landing music Ltd., a small list and CD shop they own in Seattle.
They used to spend an hour and a half completing their month-to-month income tax record — a role that now takes five minutes. The handiest manner they might be certain of filling a customer request turned into to manually investigate the racks. They scanned paper earnings logs or polled their personnel to find out what become selling. Now they automatically tune stock and directly method transactions by way of bar codes on all gadgets. With just a few mouse clicks, they comprehend what’s scorching and what’s now not and whether they have got a copy of a basic or rare album that a client wants. in addition, they could indicate other albums the client should still are attempting, in accordance with tips stored by way of Microsoft aspect of Sale on the retailer’s native pc in regards to the adult’s previous purchases and preferences. throughout their days off, the Geists no longer visit the shop to peer how issues are going; they examine revenue and employee endeavor remotely by means of their domestic computer.
“Microsoft element of Sale has given us back our lives; we now not spend infinite hours tracking stock, guessing what inventory to order or closing the until,” Elizabeth Geist spoke of. “Now more of our time at the save is spent doing what we do premier: building relationships with our consumers and finding them the tune they love.”
digital cash Register not presents Small dealers identical Ka-ching
The Geists are among the many all of a sudden transforming into ranks of small retailers which have abandoned their digital registers and manual recordkeeping to profit the stronger enterprise insight and control provided by way of POS application and dispose of high priced credit and debit card fee terminals and transaction fees. according to IHL Consulting neighborhood, shipments of workstation-based mostly POS terminals grew 12 % between 2003 and 2004. The company suggested that over 40 percent of single-store marketers are actually the usage of notebook-based mostly know-how.
Paula Rosenblum, director of retail research for Aberdeen neighborhood, agrees. “Small companies need POS technology no longer simplest to survive towards retail giants, but additionally to sustain with different small and medium-sized companies which are already taking advantage of the insights and efficiencies of store automation,” Rosenblum said. “The advantages are too first rate and the funding too reasonable for small corporations to keep getting by means of with that historic electronic money register and counting on their intestine instincts when making enterprise selections.”
Works With the Microsoft office gadget and commonplace Accounting software
not like different POS items that supply isolated snapshots of a business’s aspects, Microsoft point of Sale presents store owners a holistic view of their business by working with the Microsoft workplace gadget and accounting purposes equivalent to QuickBooks. This integration, along with the product’s frequent windows® interface and customizable touch-monitor controls, simplifies and enhances the benefit of use of Microsoft point of Sale for owners and employees. practicing on the system typically takes below an hour.
Familiarity with and confidence in Microsoft application as neatly because the product’s ability to work with usual accounting purposes changed into the tipping point for the Geists, who, after investigating POS options for more than two years, chose to implement Microsoft factor of Sale. “Adopting a whole new means of operating your enterprise is scary — even when the competencies advantages are so conveniently apparent,” Elizabeth Geist spoke of. “We needed to believe the know-how from the get-go — and we did.”
Microsoft enterprise options Expands POS Product family
Microsoft factor of Sale joins the current line of Microsoft element of sale solutions, which comprises Microsoft business options Retail management device. Designed for small and medium-sized dealers, this potent software kit will also be customized for selected company requirements, presenting retailers with refined performance at a cheap expense. Microsoft Retail management equipment works with a number of accounting classes, together with Microsoft company options–first rate Plains®, QuickBooks and Peachtree; and the Microsoft workplace gadget. And to better meet the needs of its midmarket segment retail consumers, Microsoft Corp. plans to offer more suitable integration with Microsoft top notch Plains in coming months.
Pricing and Availability
Microsoft factor of Sale is accessible within the u.s. through authorized reselling companions. A single lane license prices $799 (U.S.) MSRP.*
About Microsoft enterprise options
Microsoft company solutions products and features are integrated, adaptable enterprise purposes and services that allow small and midsize corporations, tremendous organizations, and divisions of global agencies to join personnel, shoppers and suppliers for more suitable effectivity. The monetary, client relationship and supply chain management applications work like and with accepted Microsoft products akin to office and windows to streamline tactics throughout a complete corporation, giving organizations perception to respond swiftly, plan strategically and execute rapidly. Microsoft business options products and capabilities are delivered via a world community of channel companions that deliver specialized capabilities and local guide tailor-made to a company’s needs.
founded in 1975, Microsoft (Nasdaq “MSFT”) is the worldwide leader in software, functions and solutions that support individuals and corporations understand their full skills.
* Estimated resale cost; reseller prices may additionally differ.
Microsoft, windows and top notch Plains are either registered emblems or trademarks of Microsoft Corp. or its associates in the u.s. and/or other international locations.
The names of genuine companies and products mentioned herein may well be the logos of their respective homeowners.
be aware to editors: in case you have an interest in viewing more information on Microsoft, please talk over with the Microsoft internet page at http://www.microsoft.com/presspass on Microsoft’s company suggestions pages. internet links, cellphone numbers and titles have been proper at time of book, however may additionally considering that have changed. For extra information, journalists and analysts might also contact Microsoft’s rapid Response crew or different applicable contacts listed at http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/contactpr.asp.
I’ve certainly not really taken Microsoft Rewards significantly. The service is a loyalty programme from Microsoft that allows you to earn rewards for doing the things you already do like shopping the internet and buying video games and apps, so long as you're the use of Microsoft’s favorite features.
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read extra concerning the provider at Microsoft here.
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The Oscars aren’t for another few weeks, but Wall Street’s version of a red-carpet event played out this past week. Live bloggers and trading-floor telecasters thrilled to the latest earnings reports from aging star Apple , naughty but bankable Facebook , and supernova Amazon.com .
Against that glitz, it’s not easy for an adhesive maker to stand out. Yet 3M (ticker: MMM), which last week reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded analysts’ estimates, bears watching. It offers a more down-to-earth illustration of how earnings growth is sharply slowing among large U.S. companies amid a broader economic malaise.
3M’s earnings per share grew 12% last year, or 14% adjusted for one-time items, on modest revenue gains spread across all of its product categories and regions. For 2019, the company is now calling for growth to slow to a low-single-digit rate. Investors appeared relieved that the new guidance wasn’t worse; the consensus earnings estimate for 2019 has been tumbling since fall, after all. Shares trade at 19 times this year’s earnings, suggesting that 3M investors expect the slowdown to pass quickly.
They may be proved right. And the broader outlook for company earnings this year is a little better than 3M’s—but not nearly as favorable as it was even a few months ago.
As recently as the end of September, Wall Street analysts had been predicting 10% growth in S&P 500 earnings in 2019. Today, the latest 2019 consensus estimate is just under 6%, compared with a hefty 21% in 2018. Analysts expect S&P 500 component earnings to total $170.37, compared with an estimated $161.14 for 2018.
For the first quarter of 2019, the outlook is dismal. This past week, the consensus estimate for first-quarter earnings growth turned negative, at nearly minus 1%, due in part to the impact of the government’s shutdown and a slip in energy profits.
There is scattered talk of an earnings recession looming. It’s too early to predict one of those, but not too early to prepare for one. We’ll look at five well-positioned companies in a bit.
“Be wary of the bounceback stocks have seen since December,” says Richard Bernstein, a former chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch who today manages $9 billion out of his own advisory firm. “We’re later in the cycle, and things are naturally starting to slow down.”
The S&P 500 had its best January in 30 years, gaining 7.9%.
Most companies now reporting fourth-quarter results have been beating earnings estimates, but that happens pretty much every quarter nowadays, and the size of upside surprises has been smaller than usual. It’s not difficult to imagine that when all the results are in, upside surprises will push fourth-quarter growth to 13% or 14%. Tax cuts will account for almost seven percentage points of that.
Bernstein is concerned that a number of companies have used debt to buy back stock and goose growth. But he doesn’t expect an earnings recession this year, and he predicts that the next economic downturn will be milder than what investors expect, because companies have been cautious about expansion. “You should be moderately overweight stocks, but not pedal-to-the-metal,” Bernstein says. “The No. 1 theme is earnings quality and stability.”
Valuations aren’t especially stretched. The S&P 500 trades at 16 times projected 2019 earnings, and the backdrop for stocks is flattering. The 10-year Treasury yields 2.7%, less than half its average of the past half-century. The Federal Reserve has suggested that it might be done raising interest rates for now, given some wobbly economic signals.
When rates were near zero, investors used the acronym TINA to describe the sentiment that “there is no alternative” to stocks. Today, it’s more like TASS—the alternatives still stink.
That bodes well for positive stock returns this year, although there’s a flip side: If investors cried uncle on rate increases while rates were still historically low, it doesn’t say much for their confidence in economic growth. The Fed expects U.S. gross domestic product to grow by just 2.3% this year, versus an estimated 3% in 2018. Longer term, the Fed is predicting 1.9% growth. Population growth has slowed, and productivity gains from technology have shrunk.
One risk for stock investors is that analysts tend to guess too high about earnings for distant quarters, and then over time bring their numbers down to levels that can be beat. That raises the possibility that the ugly first-quarter projection is more reliable than the calls for growth to rebound later in the year. If so, even factoring in upside surprises, growth could be barely positive this year.
But there are a few credible reasons to think earnings growth might indeed pick up as the year goes on. One is that the recent government shutdown, which has ended for the moment, sapped an estimated $11 billion from the economy, but only $3 billion of that is lost for good, according to the Congressional Budget Office. When economists at Wall Street banks recently brought down their first-quarter GDP estimates, some also nudged their second-quarter forecasts higher.
Oil prices are another significant factor. The largest percentage declines in first-quarter earnings estimates are found in the energy sector and are owed to a slide in Texas crude oil to $45 a barrel at the end of 2018 from more than $75 in early October. The price has been rebounding so far this year, to a recent $55, and some energy companies can adjust operations to cut costs, so the hit to future quarters might not be quite as bad. That’s especially true of the fourth quarter of 2019, because it will face relatively easy comparisons with the fourth quarter of 2018, when growth had already begun to sag.
There’s another hopeful sign, and it comes from focusing on companies that are pulling the market’s first-quarter growth estimate down the most.
Some of these companies aren’t exactly wrecks. Apple (AAPL) is expected to be the greatest drag, because customers have been slow to upgrade to its latest phones, but services and accessories are growing nicely, and as long as Apple and Samsung Electronics (005930.Korea) dominate the pricey end of the handset market, growth will come around. Wall Street predicts a return to earnings gains in the quarter ending in December 2019, when Apple will have new phones on sale.
Alphabet (GOOGL) is the second-biggest projected drag. It is growing revenues like a youngster, but spending has been rising even faster. Overall earnings growth should resume sometime in 2019; investors will learn more when the company reports fourth-quarter results on Feb. 4. On the other hand, No. 3 and No. 4 are Micron Technology (MU) and Western Digital (WDC), which are stuck in a nastier downturn in semiconductors that might not abate right away.
For stockpickers, there is statistical comfort to be found in the difference between the weighted earnings growth estimate for S&P 500 companies for the first quarter, which is slightly negative, and the median estimate, which is about 4%. It suggests that beyond a handful of titanic profit declines, the near-term outlook for typical companies isn’t so gloomy.
Investors worried about a slowdown might want to favor companies whose growth isn’t overly tied to the economy. Traditionally, that has meant defensive groups like food, drugs, and electric utilities, but grocery spending has shifted toward fresh and away from packaged food, drugmakers are facing pricing pressures, and electricity demand isn’t growing as it used to.
Better to look for what are sometimes called secular, or idiosyncratic, growers: companies benefiting from powerful long-term trends, and not just a sweet spot in the business cycle. Some have expensive shares, but others look affordable.
Here are five to consider:
Stryker (SYK) passed a rigorous stress test when its revenues and profits kept growing right through the global economic downturn of a decade ago. The company is known for its replacement hips and knees, but it has other orthopaedic products for spines, broken bones, and more, and a large portfolio of medical and surgical equipment, including stretchers, scopes, and drills. “Doctors and surgeons don’t like changing the orthopaedic suppliers they deal with because they don’t want to have to relearn procedures,” says Eric Schoenstein, co-manager of the Jensen Quality Growth fund (JENSX), with $6.5 billion in assets spread among just 27 stocks. That keeps customer retention high.
A new robotic-surgery system called Mako gives Stryker an edge over the competition, Schoenstein says. Earnings per share are seen rising 11% this year. Shares trade at 22 times forward earnings estimates. That’s about what investors are paying for defensive Colgate-Palmolive (CL), whose earnings are expected to decline slightly this year.
Schoenstein also likes Microsoft (MSFT), which beat on earnings Thursday but missed on revenue, both by tiny amounts. Given comments by Intel (INC) and others about a slow patch for sales to cloud customers, investors were concerned about growth for Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform. It matched last quarter’s 76% gain from a year ago.
Microsoft isn’t immune to an economic downturn, but two factors help dampen its exposure to one, Schoenstein says. One is that its customers these days are largely deep-pocketed enterprises rather than consumers. Another is that cloud investments can help companies save money. In response to the earnings report, Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives wrote in a note to investors that despite the lack of a “clean beat,” the outlook for the March quarter was positive, and trends in major products suggest that Microsoft is only midway through a growth renaissance. Shares sell for 22 times forward earnings, and Wall Street expects low- to midteens earnings growth rates in coming years.
Patrick Kelly, co-manager of the Alger Spectra fund (SPECX), favors Microsoft, too, and has high weightings in tech and health care. He also likes an auto supplier that sells for 14 times forward earnings: Aptiv (APTV). It makes electrical systems and advanced safety systems that give it excellent exposure to the so-called Auto 2.0 shift toward more automation in cars, even though it has Auto 1.0 roots. The company was part of the ill-fated Delphi spinoff from General Motors (GM) in 1999, but a little over a year ago, Delphi spun off its traditional engine components and gave itself a jazzy new name. The good thing about Aptiv is that some of the same technologies that will one day automate cars are already in fierce demand in the form of lane-detection and collision-avoidance systems, cruise control that speeds up or down to keep up with traffic, and more.
One hitch is that the company isn’t entirely detached from the business cycle. A near-term downturn in car demand is expected to slow earnings growth to low-single digits this year before a return to double-digit growth rates in the years ahead. That has led to a cyclical-versus-secular debate among investors. Shares have come down by more than 20% since last summer. Despite near-term automotive weakness, Aptiv looks capable of growing much faster than the industry over the long term, Kelly says.
Strategists at Goldman Sachs recently recommended idiosyncratic growth stocks for protection against Brexit, a U.S.-China trade showdown, and other policy hobgoblins. Its list includes well-known world beaters like Amazon.com (AMZN) and expensive up-and-comers like retailer Five Below (FIVE), at 39 times earnings.
One recommendation for the thrifty is Spirit Airlines (SAVE), at nine times earnings. It was a leader in selling stripped-down flights while charging for minor pleasantries like advanced seat assignment, an approach it says allows it to beat competitor fares by 35%.
Legacy carriers have responded with “unbundled” flights. Spirit, under new management, is working to improve its perception with passengers, promoting its relatively new planes and high on-time rates. Discounted bundles of perks, like its “thrills combo”—a checked bag, seat selection, priority boarding, one free flight modification, and double rewards miles—are boosting nonticket revenue.
As an airline, Spirit is subject to fuel-price swings, but as a relatively small player, it can cherry-pick routes. Revenues are growing at a double-digit pace. The company reports fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday. Wall Street predicts a 32% increase for all of 2018, followed by a 48% earnings gain this year.
For investors who prefer traditional staples, look to the beer aisle—the cans, not the stuff inside them. Mega-brewers like Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), whose name is a mash-up of beer makers on three continents, are caught between the carb-consciousness of younger drinkers and the proliferation of craft brews.
Cans, on the other hand, are in fierce demand, not only from craft beer but also from flavored and spiked seltzers and energy drinks. U.S. volumes for Diet Coke rose last year for the first time in years, and marketers aren’t quite sure whether it was the new flavors, like “zesty blood orange,” or a shift to skinnier cans. Even wine makers have been experimenting with cans, which are more portable than glass and more environmentally friendly than plastic.
All of this is good news for Ball (BLL), which is still associated with glass jars for homemade sauce, even though it got out of glass in the 1990s and today is mostly focused on cans. Shares trade at a staple-like 20 times forward earnings, but earnings are expected to grow an uncanny 19% this year and 15% next year.
So don’t sweat the earnings recession just yet, and beware forecasts for either a dire downturn or a shift to a glorious era of runaway growth. The reality is that growth is abruptly slowing from an inflated level, but it hasn’t stalled, and the bull isn’t dead yet.
Write to Jack Hough at email@example.com
The original Windows 1.0 went on sale back on November 20 1985, and kickstarted the personal computer revolution.
Since then Microsoft has released many version of Windows, some loved, some hated. Check them all out in our piece: From Minesweeper to Metro: A history of Microsoft Windows.
But what was it like, and why didn’t the critics like it? Read on and find out.
Nowadays most operating systems come free or cost very little to upgrade. But back in the 80s it was a different story. The Apple Lisa cost around $10,000, for example, and even the first Macintosh cost $2,495 in 1984. By comparison, Windows 1.0 was dirt cheap – the software cost just $99, in fact, while the PC required to run it could cost as little as $600.
[Read more: Windows 10 overtakes XP and 8.1 in popularity, as Microsoft increases, Windows 10 upgrade pressure]
While it looked a world away from Microsoft’s previous desktop operating systems, it actually ran on top of the text-based MS-DOS – if you didn’t have DOS, you couldn’t run Windows.
Because of its windows layout, it required a mouse to navigate, but critics weren’t sold on this new-fangled approach. “Who wants to use a peripheral to control their computer?” they cried. Everyone, as it happened.
As you can see, Windows 1.0 looked very basic by today’s standards, but it was a huge step for Microsoft. It was the company’s first graphically rich user interface – at this point, only Apple had released anything like it so it was pretty forward-thinking for the time.
[Read more: Windows 10 S: Six burning questions about Microsoft’s new operating system]
Features included drop-down menus, scroll bars, icons and dialogue boxes, and instead of typing in complex commands, you navigated by pointing and clicking. In essence, it’s the same basic user interface that we still use to this day.
You could also switch between programs without having to quit and restart each one – an invaluable timesaver.
It even had its own game, Reversi, a strategy board game for two players.
Microsoft encouraged other companies – and even its rivals – to develop programs for Windows by not requiring them to use a Microsoft user interface in their applications.
[Read more: Microsoft stops selling Windows 7 — what does it mean for you?]
It could have been called ‘Interface Manager’ instead of Windows. That was the codename, but the catchier ‘Windows’ won out in the end.
While it received many plaudits for its potential, sceptics labelled it as vapourware, a term used to decry software that isn’t yet available.
Windows 1.0 went on sale on November 20, 1985 – a full two years after it was first unveiled. One columnist joked that when Microsoft first announced Windows, its executive Steve Ballmer still had hair.
[Read more: Solitaire, Notepad and Paintbrush: What do you remember about Microsoft, Windows 3.0?]
Chairman Bill Gates knew the OS was the first step to a brighter future for Microsoft. “Windows provides unprecedented power to users today and a foundation for hardware and software advancements of the next few years,” he said in the original press release. “It is unique software designed for the serious PC user, who places high value on the productivity that a personal computer can bring.”
Steve Ballmer starred in the original advert for Windows 1.0. With his inimitable enthusiasm, he shouted about its offerings – “Wait until you see Windows Write and Windows Paint!” – before going loco about the $99 price.
You couldn’t place one window over another in Windows 1.0. Instead, all windows appeared as tiles, which isn’t a million miles away from the tile-based user interface in Windows 8. When Microsoft introduced overlapping windows in a later version, it faced a lawsuit from Apple, whose Macintosh interface allowed windows to overlap.
Most of the the critics slated it, and not just because it relied on you using a mouse. While it did run on low-specced computers, it was very sluggish, especially when running more than one application at once. It had its share of bugs, too. Some programs would ‘misbehave’ when opened and take up the whole screen, for example. Still, nothing is perfect, and Windows went on to dominate home and business computing for decades.
[Read more: Microsoft Windows: How one piece of software changed the world]
Photo credit: Main pic Windows1.0: Via Wikipedia. 1: MS-DOS Executive, Windows 1.04 by coldacid - Original publication: 2014-02-21Immediate source: Screenshot from Bochs. Licensed under Fair use via Wikipedia.
One of the surest ways to make money over the long haul is to pinpoint unstoppable trends. One such trend is the ability to buy almost anything with the tap of a smartphone.
The cashless society is rising to new heights once only imagined in science fiction. Mobile devices are becoming the payment system of choice for consumers.
Which brings us to Square (NYSE: SQ), a $31.1 billion market cap technology firm that provides innovative point-of-sale solutions. Square has generated a lot of Wall Street interest lately, as investors seek to profit from rapid technological change in financial services.
Is Square the next big thing? Or has the stock benefited from a lot of unwarranted hoopla? Let’s see if the stock is a good buy in 2019 or just another investment fad.What Is Square?
Square offers a proprietary point-of-sale system, including software and hardware, that allows sellers to turn mobile and computing devices into payment solutions.
The market for these capabilities have long been necessary. If you’ve ever run your own business, you know that it’s problematic to set up efficient point-of-sale systems. And if you’ve ever engaged in a transaction using Square, you’ve seen that its solutions are easy and seamless.
Square’s hardware allows for magstripe swipes, tap and pay, and chip reading across all the major Europay, MasterCard, and Visa (EMV) chip cards. The hardware also deploys Square Stand, which enables the use of an iPad as a payment terminal, and Square Register that combines the company’s hardware, point-of-sale software, and payments technology.
You’ll see these products used primarily in small businesses, in places like coffee shops, restaurants, antique stores, etc.
Square offers Cash App, which permits customers to electronically send, store, and spend money. The company also offers Caviar, a food ordering platform for restaurants, and Square Capital, which facilitates loans to sellers based on real-time payment and point-of-sale data.How Has Square Stock Performed?
With a market cap of $106 billion, PayPal operates a platform that facilitates digital and mobile payments on behalf of consumers and merchants worldwide.
PayPal is the name of the company’s mobile swipe card reader. That product is swipe reader only, though. The company also has a chip card reader.
All of PayPal’s standard cards are accepted and the cost for each swipe is 2.7% of the transaction total, while Square’s fee is 2.75%. Like Square, the PayPal software can turn your iPad into a cash register.SumUp (private)
German-based SumUp actually designs its own card readers and then produces them in-house. Most of its competitors outsource these engineering tasks. (Leave it to the Germans to emphasize engineering!)
SumUp offers swipe, tap, and chip reading functionalities. Its system also works with a smart phone or tablet and accepts all major credit cards. The transaction fee is 2.65%.Intuit (NSDQ: INTU)
Intuit (market cap: $55 billion) is diversified with many different products. The firm provides financial management products and services for small businesses, consumers, the self-employed, and accounting professionals.
The company’s GoPayment competes with Square’s offerings. Intuit’s product has been criticized for several reasons. Some users find it buggy, as well as unsuitable for individuals and new businesses.
Those are the three main competitors, but by no means all of them. The e-commerce space is fiercely competitive and new entrants continually spring up.
Read This Story: Our Shopify Stock Prediction in 2019 (Buy or Sell?)Will Square Stock Go Up in 2019 (Should You Buy?)
Square’s products are impressive and they’ve gained a lot of loyal customers. The product has significantly scaled and revenues are booming. Unfortunately, the company can’t seem to turn a profit.
That doesn’t necessarily mean we’re rejecting SQ out of hand as a possible stock to buy.
There are two types of companies that run losses. The first type are companies that are new and still trying to scale. Their future is in doubt. The second type are like this company, which continues to scale and for which a real future appears likely.
Let’s see if there’s any metric by which we might consider this stock undervalued
SQ has a $27.2 billion net-of-net-cash market cap. Trailing 12-month (TTM) net loss was only $2 million.
SQ stock has no price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple since it has no earnings. However, it does have TTM revenues of $3 billion, which means it trades at about 9x revenue.
On the one hand, companies like Netflix (NSDQ: NFLX) that are making very little money yet have a high-flying stock, are trading at 9x revenues. Meanwhile, Microsoft (NSDQ: MSFT) trades at 8x revenues and it’s making a fortune.
How do you evaluate a company like Square that’s growing, has whittled annual losses down to breakeven, and appears ready to start generating a profit, yet on one metric trades at a valuation that’s sky-high?
We don’t like to make investments on faith. Square entails many unknowns. What’s more, a mega-cap rival in e-commerce could easily come along and poach Square’s market share.
Read This Story: Our Amazon Stock Prediction In 2019 (Buy or Sell?)
That said, there’s a school of thought that says Square’s stock will be seen as cheap in retrospect. This video lays out the bull case:Will Square Go Down in 2019 (Should You Sell?)
If we can’t evaluate a stock by traditional metrics (such the P/E) because it has no earnings, that stock is probably overvalued.
It seems ridiculous Square is valued on a price to revenue ratio that exceeds that of Microsoft, which has been in business for decades, generates billions of dollars in profit and free cash flow every year, and is one of the greatest companies in the world.
Is there a comparison to be made with PayPal and Intuit?
PayPal has a net of cash market cap of $95 billion. On $2.1 billion of TTM net income, it trades at 45x earnings. As mentioned in earlier columns, we give a 10% premium to that number for each of the following: world-class brand name (yes), significant cash hoard (yes), and/or robust free cash flow (no).
Including the valuation bonus, PYPL’s five-year estimate is for 25% growth. It thus trades at a PEG ratio of 1.8. Normally, 1.0 is the highest we go to consider buying a stock. However, if its growth rate exceeds 15%, we permit 2.0.
On a revenue basis, PYPL has $15 billion in TTM revenues. Consequently, the company trades at 6.3x revenues, cheaper than SQ.
Intuit has a net of cash market cap of $54 billion. On $1.25 billion of TTM net income, it trades at 43x earnings. The checklist: world-class brand name (yes), significant cash hoard (no), and/or robust free cash flow (no).
Including the valuation bonus, Intuit’s five-year estimate is for 16% growth. It thus trades at a PEG ratio of 2.7. Too high for us.
On a revenue basis, PYPL has $6.1 billion in TTM revenues, which means the company trades at 9x revenues.
Conclusion: SQ is no more expensive than Intuit but pricier than PayPal.Overall Square Forecast and Prediction for 2019
What’s our final verdict on Square’s stock?
Investors are enamored with the company. If the company turns a corner and reports a profit, which appears likely, it would serve as a “profit catalyst” that propels the share price higher. Barring any bad news, the stock will probably continue higher this year.
Investors who are interested in getting into the stock should have a higher than average tolerance for risk. But be forewarned: in a broader market selloff, unprofitable and highly valued tech stocks such as Square will fall the fastest and the hardest.
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