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Palo Alto, Calif.-based mostly Hewlett-Packard Co. has developed a brand new fault-tolerant blade server, the HP Integrity NonStop NB50000c BladeSystem, that analysts say is respectable adequate to rival an IBM mainframe. the brand new blade combines the high-availability elements of HP Integrity NonStop servers with the cost and power efficiencies of the HP c-classification BladeSystem.
The NonStop NB50000c combines usual, off-the-shelf c-type blade enclosures and blades and provides fault-tolerant aspects: The blade server interconnect within the back of the chassis is in line with the excessive-speed, low-latency interconnect ServerNet for high availability, whereas NonStop utility allows for a fault-tolerant ambiance; if an issue arises on one blade, the workloads on it are immediately moved to one more to stay away from downtime.
The HP choices are designed for IT shops in industries like monetary capabilities that attempt for zero downtime. "Fault tolerance is for functions that need to be up 24 hours a day and for americans who need to convey answers in real time," observed Randy Meyer, the director of NonStop product administration approach at HP. "it's in fact N+1 failover."
The servers additionally characteristic normal HP administration equipment, similar to HP Integrity integrated Lights-Out (iLO) 2 , HP systems insight manager and the Onboard Administrator for HP BladeSystem, and are based on dual-core Intel Corp. Itanium chips (and are suitable with quad-core).as much as eight NonStop blades fit in one chassis, Meyer pointed out.
In assessment, HP's rackmount Integrity Nonstop servers are eight U excessive and condo 4 single-core processors.
"The [Nonstop] working utility can scale throughout distinctive processors despite the fact it may possibly get them, so moving to a blade turned into a logical exchange," Meyer pointed out. "The gadget is designed in parallel, so that it will have up to four,080 blades in a single-device photo. No purchasers have gone that big yet, however we do have customers doing a couple of thousand."
Jonathan Eunice, a fundamental IT adviser at Nashua, N.H.-based Illuminata Inc., observed HP's resolution to make use of blades for fault-tolerant servers is strategic and a good idea for clients. "HP chose to use its BladeCenter design because the groundwork, in line with its approach that every one server designs may still turn into extra modular over time. The blade basis offers it some nice attributes, like incremental add-ons or component protection, larger quantity and, as a consequence, enhanced economics."a reputable mainframe alternative?HP has touted the Integrity NonStop BladeSystem as an excellent alternative platform for legacy mainframes because it runs the equal kinds of purposes at an identical or more desirable efficiency and at decrease can charge, Meyer pointed out, citing the Standish group international Inc.'s contemporary "trends in IT value" file.
Submitted through HP to SearchDataCenter.com, the file indicated that the Integrity NonStop BladeSystem performs the equal tasks as an IBM mainframe at 35% lessen total can charge of possession and with as much as a 50% decrease in charge per transaction.
Numbers in experiences like this can also be problematic, and lots of the time, seller claims that their servers are "mainframe category" don't seem to be credible, but two analysts pointed out that during this case the claims are reliable.
"[HP Integrity NonStop BladeSystem] is the one structure in the industry that in reality has an opportunity at standing as much as, and even surpassing, mainframe reliability," pointed out Eunice. "HP's fault-tolerant structure has been round due to the fact that the Nineteen Eighties, and it runs gigantic stock markets, financial transaction methods, telecom analytics and fraud detection systems, and different 'have to all the time, always, all the time live up' computing."
Ken Cayton, IDC's analysis supervisor for business systems, spoke of fault-tolerant methods like HP's Integrity NonStop servers are being adopted in environments where mainframes as soon as would have been the most effective reply.
"HP's fault tolerant techniques are generally used in mainframe environments or where normal mainframes fail to fulfill availability and reliability necessities," observed Cayton. "the brand new blade systems can have the same capabilities in a new kind aspect that should still be more reasonable and modular than old methods whereas also being more energy efficient."
nonetheless, Eunice mentioned, "HP NonStop and IBM equipment z use extraordinarily different system designs and styles of operation, and as you could imagine, have different strengths, application libraries, and most excellent workloads. They don't seem to be 1:1 competitors like HP ProLiant and Dell PowerEdge; you can't run application for one on the different, say. but they do goal lots of the same styles of purposes: large transaction processing hubs, say, or giant records analysis applications."
still, HP has put its cash the place its mouth is; the enterprise is so assured that the new Integrity NonStop NB50000c BladeSystem is nearly as good – and more desirable – than IBM mainframes that HP has offered the gadget plus a full yr of NonStop platform application to shoppers who decide to migrate from mainframe architectures. provided through the IT provider business Logica, the incentive software, is known as NonStop FREEdom.Fault-tolerant programs on the upward push?Cayton mentioned that information facilities' broader use of virtualization for consolidation and backup makes excessive availability more essential and can raise using fault-tolerant techniques.
but it surely's not a digital ambiance that drives the want for fault-tolerant servers however somewhat the want for steady uptime. "expanding transaction volumes [from things like] social-scale use of the internet … and increasing use of information analytics for fraud detection, company choice making, chance analysis, etc. The underlying use cases are unexpectedly growing."
other companies that offer fault-tolerant servers include Stratus technologies and NEC.Availability and pricingThe HP Integrity NonStop NB50000c BladeSystem is accessible nowadays. Pricing begins round $300,000 for a chassis, two blades, drives and memory, and an I/O and power package. a fully configured system runs from $750,000 to $1 million.
tell us what you consider in regards to the story; e mail Bridget Botelho, news writer.additionally, take a look at our news weblog at serverspecs.blogs.techtarget.com.
That got here as part of a document laying out the series of factors that contributed to problems with the Minnesota Licensing and Registration system, called MNLARS. The nonpartisan workplace of the Legislative Auditor on Thursday, Feb. 14, released its 86-page evaluation of the application's rollout, now and then naming good officers who were key to its implementation.
both departments tasked with leading the task, the department of Public safety and Minnesota tips technology functions, had essentially a decade and $a hundred million to get the new desktop gadget up and running. And that may still've been enough, auditors wrote.
but technical issues, a lack of trying out previous to the launch, terrible management and conversation by means of these overseeing the task and an absence of key stakeholders within the determination-making method all avoided a superb roll out.
"ultimately, the Minnesota department of Public defense (DPS) and workplace of Minnesota suggestions know-how capabilities (MNIT) need to share the blame for the device’s deficiencies," Deputy Legislative Auditor Judy Randall and Joel Alter, director of special reviews, wrote.
In letters protected within the record, DPS and MNIT heads welcomed recommended alterations and designated work they have been doing to increase MNLARS relocating forward. And two former MNLARS managers weighed in on the record's assessment that they have been partly to blame.
State lawmakers had been brief to voice frustration concerning the findings and call on the Walz administration to ruin down hurdles slowing features for Minnesotans.
Gov. Tim Walz experienced the difficulty firsthand on Thursday, accompanying state Sen. John Jasinski, R-Faribault, to the deputy registrar's workplace to transfer distinctiveness plates from one automobile to an additional. The DFL governor has stated he'll ask for $15.7 million to support repair complications with MNLARS.What came about?
In 2008, Minnesota lawmakers licensed early funding to exchange the existing 30-year-old program used to subject license plates, vehicle titles and license plate tabs with MNLARS.
the first recommended step became to assessment and redecorate enterprise practices to accommodate the new system, the file spoke of. And while a contractor changed into employed to assist DPS do this, a 2014 audit discovered that the branch under no circumstances did it.
In 2011, IT specialists in various state groups have been consolidated into MNIT. And on the time, leaders there spoke of they didn't have the infrastructure to build MNLARS. so that they bid out the venture and decided to work with Hewlett-Packard.
State department heads and HP contractors couldn't attain an agreement on what the end product may still be. That made it very nearly unimaginable for the contractors to put out a application that may meet the state's expectations, which they described as a moving target.
In 2014, the state dissolved the contract after HP supplied two small pieces for the gadget for $18 million.
From there, the state became left to delivery constructing its personal device. alongside the style, officers did little to involve key stakeholders, troubleshoot the utility or usher in extra team of workers to work on the gadget full-time.
"MNLARS didn't fail as a result of any single individual or choice ... there should had been extra advantageous oversight and task governance in region," the report says. "MNIT did not have valuable necessities, policies, and techniques for overseeing state agency software tasks, and MNIT leaders gave significant discretion to a small number of managers."
Two managers, Paul Meekin, and Sue Rohde, have been chargeable for overseeing the technical components of the venture and, per their job descriptions on the time, they may still had been responsible for the product they delivered, the auditors wrote.
"In our view, Meekin and Rohde bear a share of accountability for a portion of the mission shortcomings described in our document," they wrote.
Meekin became positioned on leave in November of 2017 and resigned from MNIT in 2018. Rohde resigned from her MNIT submit in 2017.
In letters covered within the report, the pair defended their work and spoke of extra changes had been mandatory at MNIT.
"The path i used to be given changed into to do the highest quality I may with a bad situation and convey MNLARS, which I and many other dedicated people accomplished," Rohde pointed out in her letter.What's next?
Representatives from the workplace of the Legislative Auditor shared their findings with lawmakers in a while Thursday. forward of that assembly, legislators had been short to weigh in on the file.
“The audit makes clear where the complications lie: ineffective leadership and state companies lacking the appropriate oversight, assistance, and technical capability for such a massive task," state Sen. Scott Newman, R-Hutchinson, mentioned in an announcement.
Newman chairs the Senate Transportation Finance and coverage Committee. He talked about the Legislature should still spoil down roadblocks that avoided a a hit MNLARS rollout and work to get daily operations up to speed.
Walz is decided to unencumber his price range request next week and he is said he'll ask for additional money to help DPS add workforce to shorten wait instances. He has no longer yet introduced his longterm plans for MNLARS.
“I don’t believe it’s always a tough ask, nonetheless it’s one which I consider is a good model for us that if you’re going to ask for taxpayer greenbacks, they’re inclined to pay it if they think it’s fair and they understand the place it’s going,” Walz informed the Faribault day by day news. “I’m simply making bound that I honor their requests and make it less demanding for them.”
He has additionally waited to nominate an MNIT commissioner and based a council to help find a suitable fit for the put up.
hashish stocks were mixed on Tuesday, amid a flurry of bulletins on the development of scientific and recreational-use bills around the U.S.
Pennsylvania’s medical hashish groups made at least 600,000 transactions in its first year, allowing eighty three,000 sufferers entry to the substance, Gov. Tom Wolf introduced over the weekend. sales totaled more than $132 million with the commonwealth gathering more than $2 million in tax revenue to date.
“Our intention for the subsequent 12 months and beyond is to increase the variety of grower/processors and dispensaries operating, to register even more physicians and to proceed the growth of our scientific, medically based software,” branch of fitness Secretary Dr. Rachel Levine mentioned in a press release.
For now, the medial hashish software has given makes it possible for to 25 grower/processors and 50 dispensaries throughout Pennsylvania.
New Jersey has moved closer to legalizing weed for leisure use with Gov. Phil Murphy and state legislative leaders accomplishing a deal in principle on a way to tax and adjust the market, according to NJ.com, a marketing agency and native information issuer. The website spoke of the proposed bill would tax hashish by means of the ounce, in preference to imposing a flat revenue tax that state Senate President Stephen Sweeney opposed.
For all of MarketWatch’s insurance of hashish organizations, click on right here.
Don’t leave out: canopy boom co-CEO reveals proper priorities for world’s biggest prison marijuana enterprise
Lawmakers have been unable to agree a framework for a felony market, amid issues that falling weed expenses would cut back the amount of tax revenue the state may compile an issue encountered in different states that have legalized. They have been additionally at odds over rules, with the new bill proposing the creation of an impartial fee. The bill would additionally permit for previous convictions for cannabis possession to be expunged. The invoice should be handed via both properties of the Democratic-led state legislatures before it can be signed into legislation.
amongst individual shares, canopy growth Corp. shares CGC, -2.46% WEED, -2.seventy five% fell 2.8% in morning exchange. Benchmark observed the business’s fiscal third-quarter earnings released late final week showed the enterprise profiting from the initial shipments into Canada’s prison adult-use market.
“We expect persevered income increase as the company benefits from adult use and foreign clinical hashish income, offset somewhat by way of slower Canadian clinical hashish income as some buyers switch from scientific to grownup use,” analyst Mike Hickey wrote in a note. “We are expecting future product choices, including edibles and beverages, to speed up boom in fiscal 2020 and beyond.”
Hickey costs the inventory a purchase with a C$a hundred ($seventy five) cost target, equal to about 38% above its existing trading degree.
See additionally: right here’s why the craft cannabis trade can thrive within the face of large Marijuana
in different places in the sector, U.S. listed shares of Quebec-based mostly Hexo Corp. HEXO, +2.15% HEXO, +1.forty nine% have been flat, after Oppenheimer initiated insurance with an outperform rating and 12 to 18-month inventory price target of $7.00, or about 18% above its current trading degree.
“We typical appear favorably upon the early efforts through the HEXO administration crew in developing a foundation to develop into a leading global CPG (client packaged items) player in the cannabis category,” analysts led by using Rupesh Parikh wrote in a notice.
The analyst noted Hexo’s success in organising Canadian infrastructure, in becoming a member of with leading CPG player Molson Coors Brewing Inc. tap, +0.33% and in its early innovations.
“We view the Molson Coors partnership as a big tremendous building for the business and a vote of self belief on the business’s ability to execute,” Parikh wrote. “we're closely observing the business’s means to land partnerships in different classes reminiscent of cosmetics, edibles, vapes, and so on.”
Hexo shares are trading at a discount to greater friends, many of which continue to savor expanded valuations bolstered by M&A, strategic investments and shortage cost. despite the fact, Oppenheimer referred to given the immature state of the industry, its rating should still be considered as greater speculative than ratings for other CPG companies.
In January, PI fiscal named Hexo one in every of its six true picks for the primary quarter of 2019.
“We agree with the enterprise is neatly placed to become a major player within the hashish-infused beverage house,” analysts Chris Thompson and Philip Ker wrote on the time, assigning the stock a speculative buy rating and 12-month rate goal of $10.
examine now: UK researchers are launching a trial looking at a cannabis-primarily based therapy for Alzheimer’s
Aurora hashish Inc. ACB, -1.70% ACB, -1.sixty one% shares had been down 0.7%. That enterprise pronounced its newest quarterly revenue last week, pretty much quadrupling revenue but also showing large losses and a shrinking margin.
Tilray Inc. shares TLRY, +0.71% were flat, and Cronos group Inc. CRON, +1.50% CRON, +1.eighty one% shares were up 2.5%. Aleafia fitness Inc. became up 1.7%.
The ETFMG choice Harvest ETF MJ, -0.17% turned into up down 0.four%, and the Horizons Marijuana lifestyles Sciences ETF HMMJ, +0.33% changed into up 0.5%. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.15% and the Dow Jones Industrial general DJIA, +0.03% had been flat to a little reduce.
See also: Washington strikes nearer to offering protections for banks that work with the pot industry
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FILE- In this July 5, 2018, file photo, smoke rises from a wildfire near Strawberry Reservoir in Utah.
SALT LAKE CITY — After a destructive and expensive wildfire season last year, a House panel advanced a resolution urging the federal government to pursue policies allowing for better forest management — but only after stripping language that also urged the federal government to minimize additional climate change.
The House Natural Resources, Agriculture and Environment Committee voted 11-2 Friday to advance HCR5 to the House floor, largely in support of the resolution sponsored Rep. Ray Ward, R-Bountiful, but not going so far as to acknowledge climate change is part of the problem.
Fire seasons in Utah have been "exceptionally destructive," the resolution states. Last year alone, the state saw over 480,000 acres scorched and 400 structures burned, with firefighting costs estimated to be $150 million.
Last year, Utah County wildfires forced thousands to evacuate for days, and for weeks after, the Wasatch Front's already poor summer air quality suffered even more.
Ward said his resolution was to address two issues aggravating Utah's worsening fire seasons: the need for better cooperation with federal partners on forest management solutions, as well as acknowledgement of scientific consensus that climate change is real and causing real problems in the U.S. and across the world.
"These are two very important things we need to try to work with federal partners to make happen for the health of our forests and for our state," Ward said.
But Rep. Tim Hawkes, R-Centerville, motioned to amend the resolution to strip the climate change language, arguing the resolution would find more consensus in the Utah Legislature if it avoided "wading into what I think are very complicated and difficult questions" and whether the resolution supports "social policies that we might question."
Rep. Phil Lyman, R-Blanding, supported the amendment, saying the climate change language added "a layer of complexity and politics that don't go along with reducing damage from wildfires."13 comments on this story
That's despite a Weber State University professor, John Armstrong, who said he teaches courses dealing with climate change, urging lawmakers to support the connection between climate change and wildfires.
"It's our job to recognize (what) the sciences are telling us," Armstrong said. "This problem is not going away."
Still, Hawkes' amendment passed. Some Republicans still opposed Ward's resolution — Rep. Derrin Owens, R-Fountain Green, and Rep. Keven Stratton, R-Orem — but it ultimately gained a favorable recommendation from the committee.
The resolution now goes to the House floor.
They go by many names—business-managed applications (BMAs), user-developed controls, among others. Their labels are as bespoke as the tasks they do. But it’s what they share in common that makes them stand out. They are inevitable. Annoying. Seemingly unavoidable. And, perhaps most of all: they are spreading.
For many banking institutions, these BMAs and controls have grown out of addition—and operational improvisation. Newly-developed business units, acquisition flurries, and tangles of reporting requirements introduced over the post-crisis period—all of these have left them managing the puzzle of reconciliation with legacy processors that aren’t designed for this era. As a result, banks have developed workarounds—typically housed in spreadsheets well outside the range of an enterprise data management framework—to manually complete the work that their systems cannot. These applications and controls will typically number into the thousands. Earlier this year, one global bank reported having roughly 60,000 of these running—or around one BMA for every four people working there.
That ought to be hard to do at a firm employing almost a quarter of a million people, and whether giant or not, firms are realizing that BMA proliferation isn’t the right answer. Coping with this is one of the leading drivers for the new enterprise efforts at control, including at boardroom level, that have gained steam in 2018. For new control chiefs and their teams, identifying the root of the problem isn’t difficult; the trouble comes in sniffing out the many BMAs that now riddle reconciliation processes; understanding the technology problem that has caused them; and just as complicated, finding the right data-centric solution for solving that problem (rather than potentially just making it worse).
Fixed Models Fail
Many of these apps and controls grow out of a combination of circumstances. To begin with, they will surround trading of instruments, products or transactions with new complex attributes that existing systems simply weren’t designed for—and can’t handle. In addition, these situations will often involve markets where automation around trade confirmation and settlement isn’t well-developed, or fully agreed and standardized. At the extreme, this can mean reaching as far back as emailing key documents, or using a fax, to receive key data and then inputting it in by keystroke. There is a sense of “this is already slow; why bother at all?”
For those that do bother, they find their legacy vendors will take many—often months—to figure out how to configure and implement the new control, and given the machinations already involved, that is quite simply too long. It comes down to the fixed data models they are strapped with. Most of this time is spent writing and using ETL (extract, transform, load) tools to properly prepare and pull in the new data, and make it translatable for matching processes. Unsurprising, then, that bank operations personnel will come up with their own fixes—not only to manage transaction data and attributes, but incorporate derived data calculations, conditional logic, and customer-specific enrichment processes pulling from another security master or other reference data. As often, what is intended to be a temporary BMA becomes all too permanent.
Structured Products, Sec Lending
Take two illustrations we’ve recently analyzed: equity-linked notes and securities lending.
The former are structured products, i.e. equity-linked put options or principal-guaranteed notes, and are typically held to maturity. But they will involve a sequence of rules governing conditions of buy-backs, and the relationship of the product’s current value to its underlying. Securities lending, meanwhile, has become increasingly popular for borrowers (who will typically be shorting), lenders (institutions), and sell-side facilitators. Here again, data attributes surrounding the specific obligations of a three-party lending arrangement need to be accurately consumed and reconciled, including combined balance and transaction validation.
Implementing an Excel-based or AVTL control around either of these examples involves numerous challenges, and creates some of its own. Buying an ELPO or lending out stock requires significantly more initial workflow than trading in a liquid market or conventional asset movements. Processing the data associated with these activities is clunky and bound to generate exceptions that need to be effectively managed. And being able to accurately assess the risk they pose against the broader balance sheet is both complex and increasingly important, meaning they must be accessible and plugged into systems across the institution. All of this serves to both complicate reconciliation processes, and heighten their consequences.
Beyond these examples, the same issues apply to a wider spectrum of over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives. To pile the flavors and transactions up—across desks and business units, over time and with new controls potentially being generated for even a single transaction—it isn’t difficult to see how BMAs become troublesome. At the largest institutions, they can require millions in annual operating cost to prop up, and add significant operational risk.
While they may be purpose-fit to today’s transaction, the problem with surviving on BMAs is that they rarely anticipate what comes next or, for that matter, properly integrate into broader enterprise control and compliance. The stronger approach to dealing with legacy shortcomings, and the scourge of BMAs left in their wake, is to introduce technology that can be implemented both far more quickly and sustainably: by deploying smarter heuristics and training data models to fit the control requirement in an ongoing agile process, with built-in documentation around the transformation process from initial input to reconciliation engine.
Like most resolutions, too many BMAs spell trouble. Retiring these controls would be a great start for 2019.
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The recent proposal of a "Green New Deal" ("GND") by a brand-new (millennial) member of Congress has been endorsed as a concept by many Progressives, including a number of presidential hopefuls (cf. National Public Radio, 2019; Zack Colman, 2019; Ari Natter & Billy House, 2019). It is being presented to Congress as a non-binding resolution (House Resolution 109; Government Printing Office, 2019), and it will probably pass in the House (perhaps by voice vote?), since it carries no weight as a resolution, beyond allowing some political positioning. However, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will require an on-the-record vote for the version being presented to the Senate. The resolution is breathtaking in its scope and lays out a Utopian plan to take over or increase the regulation of much of the economy (specifically, all of the healthcare, energy, and utility sectors; part of the real estate sector; part of the manufacturing industry (industrial sector); all of the transportation industry (industrial sector); part of the agriculture industry; and part of the forestry industry. This is all in the service of "clean and renewable energy;" "millions of high-wage jobs;" something vague called "justice;" another vague concept called "equity;" and the "prevention of unfair competition;" etc. This would imply direct government intervention and/or new regulation of at least 36% of the economy.
Some have argued that this is merely a Progressive wish list for the 2020 election, and not really a serious proposal. Some conservatives, however, think it may be a Trojan Horse for the eventual adoption of "full-on socialism," whatever that means (e.g., Jarrett Stepman, 2019). We will return to the definition of "socialism" shortly. The "GND" has already been criticized as lacking scientific support for its approach to the energy sector (e.g., James Temple, 2019; Jesse Jenkins & Samuel Thernstrom, 2019). The transportation part of the "GND" resolution also took a hit within days after its announcement when California's Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom cut the state's commitment to its high-speed rail project from 520 miles to just 150 miles. This comes amidst huge cost overruns ($77-98 billion projected cost vs. an original estimate of $40 billion) and substantial time delays on the dream project of former Governor Jerry Brown, which has been a rolling administrative disaster for a decade (Chuck DeVore, 2019).
Prominent business magnate, long-time Democratic donor, and potential Independent candidate for President Howard Schultz, has roundly criticized the "GND" as completely "unrealistic." He has also pointed out that the funding of this grandiose plan would be based on "punitive" taxes and impossibly large federal deficits of as much as $40-50 trillion (Naomi Lim, 2019). A few economists like Glenn Hubbard of Columbia University think the plan is so impractical that it will be "dead on arrival" (Bill McColl, 2019). Many people from all across the political spectrum (including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi [D-CA], quoted by Adam Shaw, 2019) think it is either a pie-in-the-sky dream or an outright farce put together by a starry-eyed band of incompetents (e.g., Timothy P. Carney, 2019). Labor unions have even expressed reservations about the potential impact of the plan on jobs (Valerie Volcovici, 2019).
Many Progressives and "socialists" subscribe to the notion that the economy is a "fixed pie," meaning they believe that if one group (e.g., the 1%, or mega-wealthy) gains an advantage or makes a disproportionate amount of money, their gains have come directly at the expense of others (cf. Mark J. Perry, 2006). This zero-sum approach may be a natural way to think, but it is not accurate. As Nobel Laureate economist Milton Friedman opined, "Most economic fallacies derive from the tendency to assume that there is a fixed pie; that one party can gain only at the expense of another." Economists proved long ago that this is absolutely not the case (cf. Robert J. Barro, 2000; Chelsea Follett, 2015; Matt Palumbo, 2015). Indeed, the world's level of extreme poverty has declined since 1970 simultaneously with a global increase in wealth inequality, because the pie itself got bigger (Charts 1 & 2).
Chart 1: People Living in Extreme Poverty Now the Lowest Ever
Chart 2: Global Wealth Inequality Has Grown Since 1980
Under the "fixed pie" fallacy, President Trump has claimed that a negative trade balance means that China is stealing the negative balance from us (they are stealing from us, but not in that way). Also, under this fallacy, Democrats of a certain stripe believe that when Jeff Bezos and Amazon (AMZN) make big money and pay no income taxes due to their deductions for huge capital investments, the money was directly taken out of the hands of government and taxpayers. Likewise, when Amazon recently negotiated a $3 billion tax incentive deal in New York, a bevy of New York Democrats opposed the deal because that (theoretical, or contingent tax accounting incentive) money should have been given to someone else (cf. Becket Adams, 2019). The influence of the "fixed pie" fallacy is rampant as well in the wording of House Resolution 109 proposing the "GND."
Investors need to pay close attention to this issue in the coming years. Just as the election of Donald Trump to the presidency caught almost everyone by surprise, the next election could swing back the other way quite violently. This would probably only occur under certain conditions: 1) an ongoing and deep recession; 2) a return to substantially higher unemployment; 3) a Fed response to the recession that would include a return to "QE" and "ZIRP;" and 4) the continued growth of the already huge wealth inequality in the US. But all of these things are not only possible, they are likely, in my opinion (Kevin Wilson, 2018a; Kevin Wilson, 2019a; Kevin Wilson, 2019b). If the political pendulum swings left in 2020, investors will be treated to a great deal of uncertainty and a major market drawdown. Because of the crony capitalism that would be built into the "GND" (more on this below), there would be a surge in most technology and many green energy stocks over time. However, the conventional energy, utility, healthcare, and transportation sectors would likely be absolutely pummeled. The banking industry would also likely suffer from greatly increased regulation.What Might Happen on the Way to Utopia?
With respect to the specific goals of the "GND," there are two likely political outcomes in the near term, according to Timothy P. Carney (2019; Op. cit.): 1) the thing fails to achieve lift-off in practical political terms because of its combination of fantasy federal budgets, a breathtaking grab for power over the economy, unscientific energy supply goals, and extremely expensive and impractical environmental goals; or 2) the deal will pass in some watered-down form because of its oft-repeated goal of having government "invest in industry," which is a common Democratic euphemism for "crony capitalism." Don't get me wrong, the Republicans love "crony capitalism" just as much as Democrats do, and they have long practiced it (Michael D. Tanner, 2015), but they call it a different thing than "government investing in industry."
Indeed, the list of corporate welfare and "crony capitalist" laws from both parties in recent years is impressive: Obamacare's annual support of health insurance companies to cover their losses in 2014-2016; the "TARP" bailout of supposedly regulated and/or insured banks in 2008 (almost all paid back however); the auto industry bailout in 2009 (not all paid back); huge energy sector subsidies (e.g., Chart 3); the Fed's annual payments to banks for their reserves (Chart 4) and huge annual agricultural subsidies (e.g., the ethanol requirement for motor fuels, and subsidies for growing corn; Chart 5). The "crony capitalist" abuse by both parties has historically been so large it is measured cumulatively in trillions of dollars (cf. Rand Paul, 2017; Cato Institute, 2017; Andrew Wilford, 2019). And, this doesn't count the administrative state's (read: Federal Reserve's) suppression of market prices over the last ten years, which is a de facto rejection of "capitalism" in favor of something else (Kevin Wilson, 2019a; Op. cit.).
Chart 3: Taxpayers Paying $14 B in Subsidies to Electric Utilities in 2019
Chart 4: Taxpayers Payed Banks $38 B for Their Reserves in 2018
Chart 5: Taxpayers Have Paid Over $395 B in Farm Subsidies Since 1996
This second ("crony capitalist") possibility for the "GND" is really not all that much different than what we saw under President Obama's "green stimulus," the $90 billion semi-boondoggle that was rolled into the 2009 emergency stimulus ("ARRA") bill (cf. Michael Grunwald, 2019). On the positive side, it was characterized by many new solar and wind projects and large new energy research efforts, many of which were moderately successful in producing an uptick in renewable energy projects, although at pretty high cost (Luis Mundaca & Jessika Luth Richter, 2015). However, on the negative side, the "green stimulus" was also characterized by the government actively choosing corporate "winners" and "losers," and it famously helped facilitate minor disasters like the bankruptcy of solar firm Solyndra for a loss of $528 million to the government (Wikipedia, 2019a), and the bankruptcy of vehicle battery firm A123 Systems after an "investment" by the US of $249 million (Wikipedia, 2019b). The explosion of "green-collar" jobs that the Obama Administration touted as part of its "green stimulus" didn't really happen either, although a gross increase in "green" jobs did occur (Luis Mundaca & Jessika Luth Richter, 2015; Op. cit.; Michelle Chen, 2014). It is unknown whether there was any net increase in jobs. The cost of creating the new jobs was something like $479,000 per job, using the above-cited analysis by Mundaca & Richter and the $92 billion cost for the program. So, to the extent that the new "GND" resembles the old Obama "green stimulus," there are reasons for some skepticism about its ultimate effectiveness."Socialism" Means Different Things to Different People
Now, it makes a certain amount of sense to me that some people describe "crony capitalism" as merely "socialism lite," based on the actual practices of "socialist" countries (e.g., Byron Schlomach, 2018). In other words, there is commonly a government-business nexus in "socialist" countries like China or Venezuela that results in the crushing of competition and the rewarding of corporations that are friendly to the regime (Wikipedia, 2019c). Still, I would argue that "crony capitalism" as practiced by Republicans could also be termed "diminished capitalism," because it doesn't operate competitively enough, and prices are not set by the markets alone (John Stossel, 2012).
The administrative state's support (from both parties) for private firms is nothing new, however, as tax preference items for small businesses and large corporations built into the Internal Revenue Code will likely amount to $6.121 trillion (Chart 6) over the ten-year period from 2017 to 2026 (Veronique de Rugy, 2017). The ever-expanding size of "transfer payments to individuals" in the federal budget, which have now risen to $2.189 trillion per year (Chart 7), is also a sign that there are strong "socialist" (or at least expansive welfare state) tendencies already built into the system. The question is whether this really constitutes a drift towards full-strength "socialism," or something else. As I listen to the renewed debate over the merits of "socialism," I find it a bit distracting that many people have quite different definitions of what "socialism" is, especially compared to the people they are talking to or trying to influence (Chart 8). At this point then, it behooves us to define what is really meant by the term "socialism" (cf. George Peterson, 2016).
Chart 6: Projected Huge Costs of Federal Tax Preference Items For Corporations and Individuals (2017-2026)
Chart 7: Exponential Growth of Federal Transfer Payments To Individuals
Chart 8: What's in a Name?
According to Wikipedia, "socialism" can be defined as: "a range of economic and social systems characterized by social ownership and workers' self-management of the means of production as well as the political theories and movements associated with them" (Wikipedia, 2019d). Because "socialism" is really a broad spectrum of systems, determining whether a country or party is "socialist" depends on the degree to which the means of production and distribution are owned or regulated by the state, and the degree to which the state indulges in giving resources away "for free" (Council of Economic Advisors, 2018). Thus, there are many varieties of "socialism," but they fall mainly into: 1) market forms; and 2) non-market forms.
"Non-market socialism" has the goal of avoiding the presumed inefficiencies and periodic crises associated with capital accumulation and the profit system of "capitalism." It tries to achieve this by eliminating private property, markets, and other aspects of "capitalism" in favor of state-determined allocations and distributions. Experiments with this form of "socialism" have generally met with outright disaster (e.g., China before 1980; Russia before 1998; North Korea since 1950; Cuba since 1962; and Venezuela since 1999; cf. Council of Economic Advisors, 2018; Op. cit.). So-called "market socialism" retains the use of at least some market prices and even, sometimes, the operation of a profit motive, but with more worker and/or government control on the distribution of those profits than is seen in "free-market capitalism." The countries of Eastern Europe that have been transitioning away from "communism" since 1989 might be examples of "market socialism" (Andrei Shleifer & Daniel Treisman, 2014; Lili Bayer, 2018). Failures here (cf. Chart 9) are a bit harder to spot; for example, Slovenia, Estonia, and Poland have nearly matched Spain's success, and all three have matched or outperformed Portugal and Greece. Not stellar, but much better than relatively unreformed economies like those of Serbia, Ukraine, and Moldova.
Chart 9: Eastern European GDP Per Capita Vs. Nordic Countries, Iberia, and Germany
There is an argument (i.e., the "socialist calculation" debate) within "socialism" about how to allocate resources in the absence or partial absence of market prices and private ownership of the means of production and its distribution (cf. David Miller, 1991; David Gordon, 1996). This argument is difficult to settle because economic models and historical analyses have been built generally on assumptions about the behavior of the end-members in the political spectrum, i.e., "pure" versions of "free-market capitalism" and "socialism" (e.g., Patrick Tyrell, 2018), although some attempts have been made to take theories and models up the middle of the road via "market socialism" (e.g., Pranab Bardhan & John E. Roemer, 1992). One aspect of the "socialist calculation" is the problem that arises when there is uncertainty about policy in an economy that is centrally controlled, without the known planning advantages that derive from information provided by "free" market prices and private ownership decisions.
For example, how should the administrative state in China make economic decisions now, given the currently great policy uncertainty (Chart 10) that has arisen due to a rapidly changing political and economic environment? By supposedly abandoning unproductive government stimulus spending, but nevertheless refusing to go "full capitalist" either, will the Chinese leadership skip along the edge of the economic abyss created by their massive credit bubble, but somehow never fall? I would guess that there will be a serious problem, and that China will actually fall into the abyss (Kevin Wilson, 2018b). Indeed, is the Chinese government's goal of combining major economic reforms with the retention of absolute centralized control over the economy even remotely realistic? Turning to the US under "crony capitalism," and based on the massive interference of the Federal Reserve in the US markets and economy over the last decade, there is huge uncertainty now associated with trying to return to "normal" (Chart 11). Is it realistic for us to think we will reach our goal of exiting our regime of low rates and huge Fed balance sheets without any major consequences? I am afraid that the impending global recession will catch us unprepared, and we will return to extreme monetary policies very shortly (Kevin Wilson, 2018c).
Chart 10: Chinese vs. Global Policy Uncertainty Indexes
Chart 11: US Policy Uncertainty Index
SourceIf Not "Pure Socialism," Then What?
I believe that the current debate over the "GND" is not really about a shift towards "pure socialism" but is rather about a kind of creeping drift towards either: 1) a version of "market socialism;" or 2) something called "democratic socialism." These labels seem a little vague, but if I understand them correctly, the former term refers to the retention of some market pricing and privately-held means of production in an otherwise moderately "socialist" system (as already discussed), whereas the latter term refers to a democratically controlled (non-Stalinist) move to a moderately or perhaps even strongly "socialist" system (Wikipedia, 2019e). It would appear that these two forms of "socialism" are not mutually exclusive then, at least in the near term. In any case, the stated goal of American Democratic Socialists like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (aka "AOC") is to promulgate punitive taxes on the rich ("from each according to his ability"), and give away a lot of "free" stuff like college education, healthcare, or even perhaps "UBI" ("to each according to his needs"), just as Karl Marx suggested long ago (Karl Marx, 1875).
I have already mentioned the extreme impact on the federal budget such a move to "democratic socialism" would have. It would also likely cause great economic harm, both because of the massive increase in total debt (cf. Kevin Wilson, 2018d), and because of huge disincentives to work or succeed (cf. Bob Funk, 2014). There would also likely be serious economic inefficiencies in such a system (cf. David Miller, 1991; Op. cit.; Council of Economic Advisors, 2018; Op. cit.). Plus, there appear to be certain "authoritarian" aspects to the "GND" and similar ideas, at least as it is defined by scholars like Juan Linz (cf. Wikipedia, 2019f). Thus, the Democratic Socialists, through the means of a "GND," appear to be: 1) seeking a basis for legitimacy in emotional appeals to fight easily recognized societal problems such as "climate change" (despite the relatively good record of the US in controlling emissions; cf. Chart 12) using the expanded power of the state; and 2) seeking to place constraints on corporate special interest groups but not on union or Progressive lobbyists (Tim Wyatt, 2019). By my calculation, the move towards a "GND" and "democratic socialism" would easily satisfy two of the four criteria used by academic scholars to define "authoritarianism." If the Bush, Obama and Trump presidencies are any examples, a third criterion may also already have been met: that of informally defined executive authority with vaguely delineated specific executive powers (cf. Erin Hawley, 2016; Elizabeth Goitein, 2017; Jonathan Turley, 2019).
Chart 12: The Big Increases in Global CO2 Emissions Since 2005 Did Not Come From the US or Europe
One real concern I have on this file is about the openly expressed goal of Democratic Socialists and Progressives to take over and/or heavily regulate major parts of the US economy. We have only to remember those fine, high performance (I'm being sarcastic) government programs and bureaucracies like: 1) the "VA" (wildly dysfunctional); 2) Obamacare, aka the "ACA" (greatly increased healthcare costs and loss of choice; cf. Chart 13); 3) the "EPA" (decline in enforcement actions [Chart 14] and a huge backlog of Superfund sites; cf. Jessica Morrison, 2017); and 4) the Dept. of Education (huge cost increases for little benefit; cf. Chart 15) to gain a sense of perspective on the merits of more government control of the economy. We can also recall those truly spectacular episodic government failures, like the 9/11 attacks or the Great Financial Crisis, to feel a profound sense of foreboding about where this trend towards more intrusive (and ever incompetent) government could take us (cf. Meghan Foley, 2018). It doesn't matter much at all which party is proposing this "GND" idea, because both believe in big government and an expansive administrative state, and both have fumbled the ball many times. Not only that, this move towards a polity best termed a "market socialist state" has already been in motion for many years anyway.
Chart 13: Big Increases in Healthcare Premiums under the "ACA" (2010-2018)
Chart 14: Steep Decline in "EPA" Enforcement Actions Since 2009
Chart 15: Steep Increase in Spending on Education, to Little Effect
SourceThe Road to Hell Is Paved With Good Intentions
The biggest economic problem in America in recent decades has arguably been the decline of the Middle Class as the returns to capital have soared, while the returns to labor (Chart 16) have stagnated (Kevin Wilson, 2017a). This has been a natural outcome of globalization, as a result of which over a billion new workers entered the global work force in the last three decades or so. Because of the increased labor supply (and favorable tax treatment), US companies had strong incentives to move operations overseas to obtain the cheap labor. However, due to inadequate support for globalization's losers (i.e., workers in certain US industries), there is a great deal of understandable resentment amongst these people regarding the way the "capitalist" (really, "crony capitalist") system works (Amina Dunn, 2018). This has not been improved by the massive financial bailouts and permanent job losses associated with the Great Financial Crisis, nor by the widespread perception that Congress is so corrupt that it is completely dysfunctional and will not do anything whatsoever about growing wealth inequality (Kevin Wilson, 2016; Kevin Wilson, 2017b). President Trump's election partially resulted from all of this frustration with the status quo ante, but there is little sign today that our troubles with wealth inequality (Chart 17) are over.
Chart 16: The Returns to Labor Have Stagnated
Chart 17: Wealth Inequality Back to Where It Was In the 1920s
The danger (in my opinion) is that when the next recession arrives, and especially if it turns out to be a severe one (cf. Kevin Wilson, 2019c), a new wave of anger and frustration will likely drive a renewed surge in Middle Class populism. This drift towards a more motivated brand of populism could theoretically lead to the landslide re-election of President Trump (in one possible but fairly unlikely scenario). But, alternatively, if the promise of a better life under Trump is perceived to have been unfulfilled, it could lead instead to the rejection of Trump and the Republicans, and the election (as yet another act of desperation by the electorate) of a Democrat who got their party's nomination by making big promises to the Progressives (e.g., Elizabeth Warren's backers), the Socialist Democrats (e.g. Bernie Sanders' backers, or "market socialists") and the Democratic Socialists (e.g., Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's backers, or just plain "socialists"). If we assume for the purposes of argument that the Democrats carry the day in 2020, we can expect a big push for at least some of the major tenets of "market socialism," "democratic socialism," or "socialist democracy" discussed above.
So, the problems from such a big swing of the political pendulum are not just the short-term practical ones that will afflict Republicans and Conservatives because they will lose power and today's Progressives and "socialists" will gain control of the political agenda. I think the economic and political theories that may be put to a test by the Left have the potential to profoundly change our theory of government for decades to come. Since Democrats have not settled which kind of "socialism" they want, we may get a hybrid monster of unknown utility and highly questionable efficacy. That change could thus be far more problematic for the entire country than a single presidential election victory by one side or the other might normally imply. In other words, I think the "socialist" Left has good intentions and the will to succeed, but they lack any real understanding of what's wrong or how to fix it. I'm not suggesting that the Republicans have the answers either, but I think they are less inclined to throw out the baby with the bath water. Indeed, our partisan politics right now are in my view just a symptom of the American political disease. That disease (the one that most needs to be treated right now) is actually the failure of government to solve most of the major problems affecting the Middle Class for over three decades.
Thus, if the Republicans don't offer voters some means of escape from the stagnation afflicting the Middle Class, they will very likely lose power; that is, unless voters simply can't stomach the form of "socialism" being presented to them, and decide begrudgingly to stay with Trump and his party, much as they did when they re-elected Nixon (with McGovern as the only real alternative). If the Democrats make pie-in-the-sky promises built on their faith in some form of "market socialism," and they offer lots of "free" stuff, and they even come up with enough economic mumbo jumbo (e.g., "Modern Monetary Theory," or "MMT;" cf. John Mauldin, 2019) to convince the masses that it can all be paid for (through the magic of the federal printing press), they will win an historic victory. If this improbable-sounding outcome (but not much more improbable than Donald Trump's victory) actually happens, it will usher in a new era of political and economic transformation focused on some new, hybrid form of "market socialism."
The hard left's intentions will be to make a better society through the exercise of government power, and to improve our experience of vague, feel-good emotional things like "justice" and "equity" (as defined by them). I don't know about "justice" and "equity," but I'm quite certain they will use government power to get what they want (just as "FDR" did), and that is exactly the mistake that the Founders were trying to prevent (Roger Pilon, 1995; Robert G. Natelson, 2018). Some people will dismiss the Founders' concerns as out of date, but I don't agree. This not only has political implications, it has profound economic implications.
Republicans have been trying to counter the renewed enthusiasm for "market socialism" or "socialist democracy" (cf. Council of Economic Advisors, 2018; Op. cit.) by citing the track record for most historical forms of "full-on socialism," which is of course absolutely terrible (e.g., the USSR, China, Venezuela, etc.). However, no one is currently proposing "full-on socialism," although something like that is the long-term goal (after a transition period) of the Democratic Socialists like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Meagan Day, 2018). Socialist Democrats like Bernie Sanders have attempted to rebut the conservative argument by pointing to the great success achieved by the various Nordic economies in recent decades (cf. Jeffrey Dorfman, 2018), and also by noting that Western European economies have much less wealth inequality than the US (cf. Chart 18).
Chart 18: Comparison of Wealth Inequality in America vs. Western Europe
The example of the Nordic economies (all of which have been claimed by Democrats to be some version of "socialist" democracies) has been the more politically effective weapon in the political fight over "socialism," at least so far. It's not clear, however, that this example should really be considered pertinent, given the mixed nature of the evidence. A number of conservatives have responded with the counter-claim that these countries are not "socialist" at all, but instead are "capitalist" democracies that simply have high taxes and very large welfare states (Anthony B. Kim & Julia Howe, 2018; Ethan Lamb, 2019). Certainly, it is hard to explain away the fact that the Nordic countries score very well on the Index of Economic Freedom (Chart 19), which would hardly be expected under any brand of "socialism" that would seem worthy of the name (e.g., Venezuela; Julia Howe & Patrick Tyrrell, 2018).
Chart 19: Index of Economic Freedom for Nordic Countries vs. America and the "UK"
The fact that there are also some interesting counterfactuals to consider just makes it harder to attach any kind of simple label to the Nordic countries. For example, Norway's percentage of government workers in its economy is more than double that of the US (Chart 20). The percentage of union workers in the Nordic countries is 6-8x that in the US (Chart 21). The amount of family benefits (as a percentage of GDP) paid out by Nordic countries is 4-5x the amount paid out in the US (Chart 22). At first glance, the tax system in the Nordic countries doesn't appear to differ much from that of the US (Chart 23), but when one digs a little deeper, significant differences emerge (Chart 24). Furthermore, recent (2014) total tax revenues as a percentage of GDP in Denmark exceeded 50%; those in Finland and Sweden were about 44% and 43%, respectively, compared to only about 26% in the US (Chart 25). On the other hand, in contradiction to the "socialist" label applied to the Nordic countries by Bernie Sanders and others, it is a fact that government debt/GDP ratios in the Nordic countries were considerably lower than that of the US in 2015 (Chart 26). This is likely due to a concerted effort in recent years to turn away from the unbridled spending associated with traditional Nordic government budgets (e.g., Chart 27). Indeed, Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen recently rebutted Sanders with the statement, "I would like to make one thing clear. Denmark is far from a socialist planned economy. Denmark is a market economy" (Ethan Lamb, 2019; Op. cit.). So, it is not at all clear that the so-called "socialist" paradigm for the Nordic countries is an accurate or fair description of what instead appear to be unique "capitalist" economies with high taxes and very expansive welfare states, as already described.
Chart 20: Government Workers as Percent of Economy For Nordic Countries vs. US
Chart 21: Workers under Union Contracts in Nordic Countries vs. US
Chart 22: Family Benefits/GDP for European Countries vs. US
Chart 23: Top Marginal Tax Rates (Plus Payroll Taxes) in Nordic Countries Not Much Different than in the US
Chart 24: Top Tax Brackets in Nordic Countries May Be Far More Progressive than They Are in the US
Chart 25: Nordic Countries Total Tax Revenue/GDP
Chart 26: Government Debt/GDP Comparison in 2015
Chart 27: Government Spending Has Fallen Sharply in Sweden
Be that as it may, the coming national debate on the merits of "socialism" will hardly be decided on the facts of the matter, nor on subtle nuances visible in complex data sets. No, it is far more likely that the publicly perceived impacts of the coming recession, the degree of wealth inequality, the viability of "socialist" giveaways to voters, and the actions taken by the current administration to ameliorate the problems of the Middle Class, will all be swirled around in the cauldron of public opinion, and the odor and flavor of the stew that is produced will determine the outcome. There is evidence that the public's opinion of "capitalism" (or at least the "crony capitalism" now practiced) is declining for all age groups (Chart 28), but it is held in especially low regard by those under 45 years old. This is hardly shocking, given the impact of the Great Financial Crisis and declining job availability on this group (e.g., at least one-third of people aged 25-29 live with their parents; Dan Kopf, 2018). Job growth in the recovery has mainly gone to low-paying sectors (Chart 29), and the employment/population ratio is still depressed by 4% from its high in the year 2000 (Chart 30).
Chart 28: "Capitalism's" Favorability Is Falling in All Age Groups
Chart 29: Most US Jobs Added Since 2008 Are in Low-Paying Sectors
Chart 30: Employment/Population Ratio (1990-2017)
The Green New Deal ("GND," House Resolution 109) is breathtaking in its scope and lays out a Utopian plan to take over or increase the regulation of much of the economy. The influence of the "fixed pie" fallacy is rampant in the wording of House Resolution 109 and in the thinking of "socialists" of every persuasion, and this portends a massive political and economic transformation if Democrats win in 2020. Whether this would be a good thing or a bad thing depends on one's point of view, of course, but there are economic reasons to fear such an outcome. Investors need to pay close attention to this issue in the coming years. Just as the election of Donald Trump to the presidency caught almost everyone by surprise, the next election could swing back the other way quite violently. This would probably only occur under certain conditions: 1) an ongoing and deep recession; 2) a return to substantially higher unemployment; 3) a Fed response to the recession that would include a return to "QE" and "ZIRP;" and 4) the continued growth of the already huge wealth inequality in the US. But all of these things are not only possible, they are likely, in my opinion.
If the Democrats do win in 2020, the "GND" will pass in some watered-down form because of its oft-repeated goal of having government "invest in industry," which is a common Democratic euphemism for "crony capitalism." This will be good for certain sectors and industries, such as technology (e.g., Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund [XLK]) and green energy (e.g., Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy Fund (NYSEARCA:PBW); Invesco Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN)). However, the conventional energy (e.g., Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE)), utility (e.g., Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLU)), healthcare (e.g., Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLV)), and transportation (e.g., iShares Transportation Average ETF (BATS:IYT)) sectors would likely be absolutely pummeled. The investment and commercial banking industries (e.g., Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLF); SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSEARCA:KRE)) would also likely suffer from greatly increased regulation and perhaps even concerns about potential breakup of the biggest banks. The viability of "socialist" giveaways to voters will be tested as well, and that means a huge increase in the deficit (which is already near $1 trillion) and either: 1) an absolute avalanche of newly issued government debt that chokes the market and triggers a sharply dropping dollar and high inflation; or 2) outright debt monetization on the "MMT" or Japanese model, but without Japan's advantages. In the Treasury avalanche case, bonds (e.g., iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (NYSEARCA:TLT)) would sell off dramatically. In the debt monetization case, the same bonds would decline in yield and deliver significant capital gains, much as they have in Japan for many years (cf. Kevin Wilson, 2018e). I think debt monetization is by far the more likely scenario.
Disclosure: I am/we are long TLT. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: Disclaimer: This article is intended to provide information to interested parties. As I have no knowledge of individual investor circumstances, goals, and/or portfolio concentration or diversification, readers are expected to complete their own due diligence before purchasing any stocks or other securities mentioned or recommended. This post is illustrative and educational and is not a specific recommendation or an offer of products or services. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
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