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in this article we are able to take a more in-depth look at one of the most important shale basins in the united states (U.S.) mainly focusing on the challenge of well productiveness over time. here's a crucial difficulty since it has ramifications for fairness valuations in the sector (NYSE:XOP) as smartly because the outlook for international oil deliver dynamics.
It occasionally looks that the U.S. shale business just can't appear to shift the narrative and overcome the reputedly overwhelming poor sentiment overhanging the sphere. but are traders extrapolating one of the most very precise negative risk factors that could be relevant when it comes to selected companies onto the entire trade?
one of the vital enduring terrible elements it's regularly trumpeted out with the aid of the bears is that these businesses don't seem to be producing free cash stream (or not in a position to) as capital bills deserve to continue to be high with a purpose to offset legacy declines. It is right that legacy decline rates for shale wells are steep. youngsters, many groups (no longer all) were working a tons larger cost of capital expenditure in order to develop production (and in some situations cover preliminary construction expenses linked to infrastructure) and if their aim become to in simple terms retain flat output ranges, their capital costs could be an awful lot lessen.
If we take a glance on the most contemporary consequences presentation from Pioneer herbal elements (NYSE:PXD) we can see that the company has outlined a capital expenditure budget of around USD three.1bn which well-nigh matches forecasted working money circulation of USD 3.2bn. however, this stage of capital expenditure will outcome in an additional 15% creation boom in oil volumes this yr at a budgeted West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fee of $53 per barrel. If the company were with ease to maintain output at 2018 ranges, the mandatory degree of capital expenditure would decline to $2.2bn, implying EBIT (or salary earlier than tax and hobby) of round $1bn.
supply: q4 profits Presentation, Pioneer natural substances
Some market individuals may additionally still consider a bit of unsatisfied at these kind of metrics, however an oil company able to grow construction inside cash flow at $fifty three per barrel is surely now not terminally mistaken. specifically when it has a reserve base a good way to permit it to provide at current tiers for essentially two decades if not extra. Assuming the identical form of charge, creation (hence no production increase) and productiveness metrics, PXD could well generate annual EBIT of roughly $2.2bn at a protracted-time period WTI expense of $70.
moving on from this selected narrative, the latest bad soundbite that investors have had to suffer is that this contemporary article posted by using the Wall road Journal.
The article purportedly uncovers a plague structural difficulty in the business in that the productivity and ultimate volumes exhibited by using the industry taking all wells drilled over the critical length have fallen in need of the quite a lot of ‘classification curves’ presented by the numerous listed groups of their displays. This should still no longer always come as a surprise. Any pro investor may still know that organizations often are trying to depict the very best reflection of their business’ s fundamentals in a presentation. during this sense, are U.S. shale groups any different to most different businesses that automatically miss forecasts or projections that they make in their shows?
Any investor that might cost a corporation primarily based solely on these introduced class curves devoid of applying a suit margin of safety is being silly. in fact it almost always can pay to follow a margin of safeguard when formulating a valuation considering the fact that it is unimaginable to grasp every thing about a corporation, in any trade really.
but does the Wall road Journal article indicate that normal trade productivity is declining? we've written in prior articles that there does appear to be a reputable thesis (such as the father or mother-child well interference difficulty) that the productivity positive aspects the industry has registered over the past decade aren't likely to prove sustainable for tons longer.
besides the fact that children, there is not any actual proof at this juncture of a decline in productivity as we are able to see within the charts beneath taken from the energy suggestions Administration (EIA) newest drilling productiveness file (DPR) for January 2019. productiveness measured in terms oil creation per rig in the first month that a neatly is drilled rose to a record stage in the Bakken basin in 2018 and is still at or close to these stages.
supply: EIA, Drilling productiveness report
within the Permian, smartly productivity measured on this groundwork reached a record in early 2016 and however receding somewhat since then, productivity remains mostly unchanged over the last two years.
supply: EIA, Drilling productivity document
in addition, when it involves the Permian it's crucial to stay cognizant that a huge component (1mn bpd) of oil construction factored into the DPR metrics is legacy widely wide-spread production, whereas logistical bottlenecks has meant that the number of drilled but uncompleted wells has climbed enormously over the last twelve months, likely a little distorting these same productiveness metrics.
in view that this manner of measuring productiveness will also be a little bit improper, we checked out different most likely greater valuable comparisons, due to the incredible information compiled and published by Shaleprofile.com. We looked at data for the Bakken and Permian basin specially evaluating the oil creation per well achieved after 365 days for the 2017 antique to the 2016 vintage. For the Bakken the 2016 old of wells drilled (737 in total) produced 111,009 barrels per day (bpd) or a hundred and fifty bpd per neatly after one year. The 2017 vintage (992 wells drilled) produced roughly one hundred eighty,000 bpd (we have extrapolated this from the actual November 2018 determine of 193,000 bpd) or 181 bpd per smartly. we can see that the 2017 wells are really producing greater oil per smartly twelve months later when in comparison to the 2016 old.
more primarily, Shaleprofile.com actually offers a evaluation between calendar vintages when it comes to oil construction per smartly for each and every yr, depicted below. we can see that for the Bakken basin as a minimum, productiveness as measured in oil produced per neatly accomplished has stronger each year.
analyzing the same information for the Permian basin, the equal style is largely observed. The 2017 old of wells drilled are producing extra oil per well drilled three hundred and sixty five days later (December 2018) when in comparison to the 2016 vintage of wells. again referencing the records from Shaleprofile.com for the Permian below we can see within the second chart that the cumulative construction per well for the 2018 and 2017 vintages are operating forward of prior year vintages.
What happens if productiveness ranges decline going forward?
First, what can we conclude from the above analysis? in all probability, most importantly the suggestion that shale productiveness is declining or has vastly “undershot” prior expectations is it appears that evidently mistaken. truly, if the rest the business has up to now over delivered in terms of productivity positive factors, which in turn is why we trust that these good points are likely going to show unsustainable going ahead. however, notwithstanding productivity tiers flatten out or decline slightly from current stages, here is now not a bearish component for many of the individual organizations themselves.
As we've mentioned in a previous article, a ten% decline in productivity would “Ceteris Paribus” lift total construction (including capital) expenses with the aid of 10% or assuming a base charge of $30 per barrel of oil such as $33. besides the fact that children, a 10% (and even simply flat) decline in productiveness would have large implications for overall U.S. oil creation boom and therefore the global oil market, considering the fact that the international oil market at the moment well-nigh relies just about entirely on an increase in U.S. creation boom to satisfy the incremental increase in world oil demand.
excessive legacy decline fees imply that shale oil operators do should drill a larger number of wells every year with a purpose to boost output tiers. (word: boost now not retain - here's a vital big difference and has nothing to do with individual smartly productivity). this suggests a concomitant boost within the rig count number, each year. Referencing statistics compiled and presented by using Raymond James beneath, we can see that totally to ensure that U.S. production degrees to hold transforming into, the rig count number will should increase by using roughly 30% over the subsequent two years. This forecast assumes a 5% enhance in productivity into perpetuity.
If productivity degrees stall or decline modestly (possible in our opinion) then the necessary enhance within the rig count number will should be even larger, most likely 40% to 50% bigger. Such a big boost within the rig count number will effortlessly now not ensue with oil prices beneath $60 per barrel and quite perhaps it could possibly require sustained fees above $70 per barrel. Assuming a 5% to 10% decline in productiveness degrees ends up in an equilibrium fee of between $70 to $90 per barrel imperative to stimulate renewed rig deployment (in the trade as an entire), the incremental increase in revenues that would accrue to many U.S. shale producers would dwarf the marginal increase in charges associated with a one of these decline in productiveness.
With the oil rig count number (as depicted under) having remained largely flat over the last six months, it seems that we're a very good way away from reaching the sort of rig count required to ensure continued creation boom within the usaor at least at a stage similar to what we've viewed over the past two years. really, in keeping with probably the most contemporary EIA DPR record for January 2019, projected oil production growth from the a considerable number of shale basins has already been revised sharply lessen to just sixty two,000 bpd (month-to-month), the lowest monthly DPR projection from the EIA on account that January 2017.
supply: Baker Hughes U.S. Oil Rig count number, Tradingeconomics
The precise subject in U.S. shale right now
eventually, we ought to spotlight an extra difficulty which we think will grow to be being way more crucial than the productiveness subject at a macro stage (despite the fact the two are nevertheless a bit of linked) we've discussed at length in this article. The differentiation between core and non-core acreage within North america’ s shale basins is, we believe, going to develop into an increasingly vital factor, no longer only for the organizations themselves, but when it comes to the complete outlook for world power expenditures.
Returning to the Permian for example and greater above all the fresh pursuits that have unfolded at Laredo Petroleum (NYSE:LPI) we can illustrate extra accurately what we try to convey. LPI's acreage within the Midland element of the Permian basin is arguably backyard what's now considered the core or gold standard acreage in the enviornment. This does not mean that their acreage is uneconomic at present costs, nonetheless it isn't going to supply the returns that operators are becoming within the core area.
For functions of our example we will use records from a presentation given via Parsley energy (NYSE:PE) through which they current their personal estimation of the the place the core acreage within the Midland component of the Permian lies.
supply: corporate Presentation, Parsley energy
we are able to see that much (although not all) of the acreage is concentrated within the Midland, Martin and Upton counties. In distinction, LPI's acreage (or at the least in accordance with Parsley's estimation) lies backyard the core enviornment as defined within the Reagan and Glasscock counties.
supply: corporate Presentation, Laredo Petroleum
to ensure that us to verify Parsley energy's estimation of what constitutes core acreage within the Midland basin we again to Shaleprofile.com and looked at the historical productivity of wells drilled in the a variety of counties pertinent to the Midland basin area. above all we looked at cumulative oil production 24 months after a neatly has been drilled. If we beginning with Midland county itself (arguably the epicenter of the core), we can see that general well productivity here indicates no sign of degradation.
by contrast if seem at the identical timeline of 24 months for wells drilled in Reagan county we examine here -
This statistics at least seems to verify Parsley's power's definition of what constitutes "core acreage" in this a part of the Permian. curiously we'd element out that typical well productivity in Glasscock county reflects a similar sample to that followed in Midland county even if it is largely described as being outdoor the core. despite the fact, over a 12 month time-body well productivity in Glasscock has also declined and in distinction to Midland county, where standard well productivity measured over 12 months continues to be at a listing excessive.
In LPI's case the incontrovertible fact that they seem to own acreage outdoor of what may also be considered "core" became compounded by using a choice in 2017 to drill larger density wells per spacing unit (a spacing unit is typically 640 acres) or 32 wells per unit from eight to sixteen wells per unit. The result predictably resulted in "dad or mum-baby interference" as more infill wells have been drilled and resulted in an surprising decline in oil productivity, thus forcing administration to come back to a lessen density drilling programme.
let us be clear although, an operator it truly is experiencing declining productivity because of a drilling programme that has overly dense spacing is facing a different concern from one working out of core acreage or transferring their drilling programme to poorer acreage. the previous situation can be resolved by using the business adopting wider spacing with the intention to return its productiveness stages lower back to where they had been. Naturally this reduces the number of competencies well places that may also be drilled by the enterprise, but when an organization has a very giant stock or drilling areas (like LPI) then the greatest have an impact on are not that large.
despite the fact, if a company is now having to shift its drilling programme to acreage with reduce intrinsic productiveness or a decrease "oil cut" there's without problems not a good deal they can do about that. during this regard, there are likely to be many smaller or inner most operators that are facing just this kind of state of affairs over the following few years. Naturally, the two concerns could nonetheless be linked in that poorer acreage can't accommodate the identical type of density that stronger acreage can and during this sense an operator in a non-core enviornment running the same sort of spacing density as operators within the core should still be considered probably bigger risk.
Why are we bringing up this specific illustration? neatly for two causes. the primary purpose is as an example how much smaller the last core acreage in the main shale basins in the U.S. may actually be. really as highlighted during this report from Kimmeridge power, total core acreage in the Midland basin may also best volume to a few 800,000 acres which via their definition comprises acreage in counties similar to Reagan and Glasscock which Parsley power's records shows best comprises a small element of core acreage.
moreover related to here is the indisputable fact that lots if now not most of this core acreage is now consolidated within the hands of a simply a number of groups. there's the same dynamic at play in the different foremost oil producing basins in the united states, the Bakken and Eagle Ford, which along with the Permian account for ninety% of total tight (shale) oil production in the U.S.
So what, some may ask? well, the value is that youngsters these organizations have tremendous reserves, they even have well delineated long-time period development plans that target a particular expense of annual growth in production, continually between 10% and 20%. they are extraordinarily not likely to deviate, or at the least meaningfully, from these long-time period production plans until fees alternate at a good deal larger degrees for a sustained period of time.
As smaller operators or companies with less eye-catching acreage run out of core acreage, the whole boost in construction from these basins will ultimately emanate totally from these handful of ‘ core’ operators, as they can be the most effective ones left with financial or core acreage to take advantage of and therefore grow production. in the end this suggests that in the future a tremendously larger and sustained cost may be required to move the needle on U.S. production growth than has been the case during the past. it will ought to be sufficiently multiplied with a purpose to make certain that extra marginal or “Tier 2” acreage is economic. this may or should dramatically boost the price of organizations that have tremendous reserves (or many years of core creation) of Tier 1 acreage.
The 2nd intent we are highlighting LPI listed here is to show that on the correct fee even corporations with extra marginal acreage may nevertheless be eye-catching as abilities investments. here's chiefly the case with organizations that still have a fairly large stock of drilling areas relative to their latest stage of completions and the place the decline in productiveness can also be largely remedied with the aid of adopting wider spacing between wells.
LPI has naturally had its complications and its construction profile is somewhat gassy (oil only contains 37% of total oil equal production). indeed this seems to be fitting a greater average feature of the Midland basin, namely a reasonably chunky upward thrust within the gas-Oil ratio over time and a residual risk component for operators during this basin together with LPI.
nonetheless, if we anticipate that the suitable "incentive" price for the U.S. shale business as a whole (in order to make certain that standard production growth continues to be above 1mn bpd) is round $70, then even LPI may additionally offer some upside from current tiers. LPI nevertheless retains considerable acreage and even at an assumed lessen spacing interval of say 5 to 8 wells per 640 acre spacing unit would have some 1,000 to 1,600 ultimate neatly places as inventory.
At a construction pace of round 50-60 completions per yr (the surely cadence to make sure a flat creation profile put up 2020) this may translate into 15 to twenty years price of inventory. At an extended-term WTI price of $70, LPI continues to be prone to generate adequate operational cash move to cowl its required capital fees and generate healthy extra earnings, regardless of what we might also add is a very heavy accepted and Administrative rate burden! (another excuse why the industry should see even more consolidation in order to convey true shareholder cost).
*LPI - the canary in the coalmine?
LPI's acreage however in all probability now not considered as core continues to be viewed as Tier one and never all that marginal. despite this truth we will see from the slide taken from their q4 revenue presentation and according to their latest assumption of $fifty four per barrel going ahead, LPI is cutting back is energetic rig count number from 3 to 1 and cutting back its total capital expenditure funds for 2019 by means of basically 50%. LPI's current and long run drilling programme will result in a 5% decline in oil production this 12 months and flat construction from 2020 onwards (2 rigs)
source: this fall earnings presentation, Laredo Petroleum
So from our perspective we may view LPI as a potential barometer for the total industry in that its acreage seems to be in the "core" of the trade range. In a nutshell, if the oil price increases to a degree where LPI is producing ample money movement and management feels sufficiently assured to delivery ramping up construction, then we've likely reached a similar inflexion aspect for the whole business and vice-versa.
certainly, LPI's incentive cost with the intention to ramp up production is now above $60 per barrel (in all probability $70?). If here is the case we will conclude that except oil expenditures return to the $70 to $80 stage, fabric draw back risk to U.S. oil production growth forecasts are likely to emerge as the year unfolds.
Disclosure: i am/we're long LPI. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my very own opinions. i am not receiving compensation for it (apart from from in the hunt for Alpha). I don't have any enterprise relationship with any company whose inventory is outlined in this article.
For the most part, the Wi-Fi Alliance is stoked about the observe of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) wherein the FCC is analyzing methods to make up to 1200 megahertz of spectrum accessible to be used by using unlicensed devices in the 6 GHz band (5.925-7.one hundred twenty five GHz). nevertheless it's offering some concepts for adjustments, announcing its tips will be sure insurance plan of incumbent operations whereas providing severely essential spectrum for unlicensed makes use of like Wi-Fi.
The FCC launched the NPRM closing fall and posed a series of inquiries to business stakeholders on a number of proposals to make all of it work. the primary round of feedback became due on Friday.
The Wi-Fi Alliance noted it helps the FCC’s idea to divide the 6 GHz band into four sub-bands: the U-NII-5 (5.925-6.425 GHz), U-NII-6 (6.425-6.525 GHz), U-NII-7 (6.525-6.875 GHz) and U-NII-8 (6.875-7.a hundred twenty five GHz), according to the features of incumbent features. The alliance additionally supports the commission’s inspiration to modify unlicensed use within the 6 GHz band based on a two-type approach, which differentiates between low-power, indoor-most effective (LPI) AP and standard-vigor AP gadgets.
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mainly, the alliance needs the FCC to accept as true with enabling LPI AP operations throughout the entire 6 GHz band, together with the U-NII-5 and U-NII-7 bands, devoid of an automated frequency coordination requirement for these bands. it could additionally want to see the commission enable client contraptions that function below the manage of an AP to operate on the identical energy stage because the AP (whether average-energy or LPI), among different things.
linked: Wi-Fi Alliance working on thoughts for 6 GHz
in accordance with the Wi-Fi Alliance, the 6 GHz band is not simplest beneficial for Wi-Fi, but it surely’s additionally seriously necessary.
“as with every wireless technology, Wi-Fi’s functionality depends on sufficient entry to spectrum,” noted Alex Roytblat, senior director of regulatory affairs on the Wi-Fi Alliance, in a statement provided to FierceWirelessTech. “at present, Wi-Fi’s performance, capabilities, and its role in the Nation’s telecommunications infrastructure and economy are threatened by means of the lack of enough spectrum entry.
related: Wi-Fi Alliance, Cisco among these applauding 6 GHz motion
“To verify this threat, Wi-Fi Alliance commissioned a Spectrum wants analyze that analyzed present and future Wi-Fi spectrum necessities. in response to projected increase prominent for Wi-Fi, through 2025, up to 1500 megahertz of further mid-band spectrum may be vital to preserve the Wi-Fi ecosystem,” he introduced.
Importantly, the 6 GHz band additionally offers contiguous spectrum blocks to accommodate one hundred sixty megahertz channels, that are required for prime-bandwidth applications, akin to excessive-definition video streaming and digital fact. The subsequent technology of Wi-Fi—which is in keeping with IEEE 802.11ax, often known as Wi-Fi 6—is designed to guide these excessive-facts throughput functions.
“in short, the way forward for Wi-Fi and its capacity to continue to carry a pleasing consumer experience, connectivity, economic cost, and a lot of different advantages depends on entry to the entire 6 GHz band,” Roytblat said.
As Wi-Fi Now pronounced remaining week, the IEEE 802.11 working group has determined that best Wi-Fi 6 instruments should be permitted to operate within the prospective new 6 GHz Wi-Fi bands, as hostile to past iterations of the ordinary. The determination potential that Wi-Fi 6 could be defined for operation in all present Wi-Fi bands together with 2.four GHz, 5 GHz and future 6 GHz. Wi-Fi 5 (802.11ac) will continue to operate in 5 GHz only, while 2.4 GHz will nonetheless guide older Wi-Fi models (predominantly Wi-Fi four or 802.11n), based on Wi-Fi Now.
The Wi-Fi Alliance, despite the fact, noted it enthusiastically helps the fee’s inspiration to prolong unlicensed access to the 6 GHz band but doesn’t are seeking for to restrict unlicensed operations to a particular common or technology.
“old FCC selections to enable unlicensed use on a know-how-impartial basis leveraged a confined quantity of spectrum (e.g., 2.4 GHz or 5 GHz bands) into an explosion of wireless innovation,” Roytblat referred to. “A technology-impartial regulatory model within the 6 GHz band would proceed to foster this innovation. The 6 GHz band is uniquely applicable for the Wi-Fi 6 implementation and Wi-Fi industry is constructing this expertise in anticipation of the 6 GHz spectrum becoming obtainable in the close future. Wi-Fi Alliance additionally is still focused on our core mission to keep interoperability so that users have the best possible Wi-Fi experience.”
Wall street expects a 12 months-over-12 months enhance in income on greater revenues when Laredo Petroleum (LPI) stories results for the quarter ended December 2018. while this commonly-known consensus outlook is crucial in gauging the enterprise's profits picture, a magnificent ingredient that could influence its near-time period stock fee is how the genuine outcomes compare to those estimates.
The stock might movement bigger if these key numbers desirable expectations in the upcoming income document, which is expected to be released on February 13. on the other hand, in the event that they omit, the inventory may circulate lower.
while management's discussion of business circumstances on the salary call will commonly investigate the sustainability of the instant rate change and future profits expectations, it be price having a handicapping insight into the percentages of a favorable EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus Estimate
This oil and natural fuel business is expected to put up quarterly revenue of $0.20 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year alternate of +5.three%.
Revenues are expected to be $242.fifty nine million, up 0.9% from the year-in the past quarter.
Estimate Revisions fashion
The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised forty four.forty four% lessen over the last 30 days to the current level. here's well-nigh a reflection of how the overlaying analysts have together reassessed their preliminary estimates over this period.
buyers should take into account that an combination alternate may also no longer at all times replicate the direction of estimate revisions through each of the protecting analysts.
cost, Consensus and EPS shock
Estimate revisions ahead of a corporation's profits release present clues to the enterprise conditions for the period whose consequences are coming out. This perception is at the core of our proprietary shock prediction mannequin -- the Zacks earnings ESP (anticipated shock Prediction).
The Zacks revenue ESP compares essentially the most correct Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; probably the most correct Estimate is a extra recent edition of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The thought here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an profits liberate have the newest assistance, which may probably be extra accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
thus, a positive or terrible profits ESP analyzing theoretically shows the doubtless deviation of the specific income from the consensus estimate. although, the mannequin's predictive energy is huge for high-quality ESP readings simplest.
a positive income ESP is a strong predictor of an profits beat, specially when mixed with a Zacks Rank #1 (potent buy), 2 (purchase) or 3 (dangle). Our analysis suggests that shares with this mixture produce a favorable surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a fantastic Zacks Rank in fact increases the predictive vigor of salary ESP.
Please word that a poor income ESP analyzing isn't indicative of an profits miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an profits beat with any diploma of self assurance for stocks with poor revenue ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (promote) or 5 (potent promote).
How Have the Numbers shaped Up for Laredo Petroleum?
For Laredo Petroleum, probably the most accurate Estimate is the same as the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that there are no fresh analyst views which range from what had been regarded to derive the consensus estimate. This has resulted in an income ESP of 0%.
on the other hand, the stock at the moment carries a Zacks Rank of #three.
So, this mixture makes it tricky to conclusively predict that Laredo Petroleum will beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does earnings surprise background hang Any Clue?
Analysts often agree with to what extent a corporation has been capable of match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it be price taking a look at the shock background for gauging its impact on the upcoming number.
For the closing mentioned quarter, it was anticipated that Laredo Petroleum would put up revenue of $0.30 per share when it really produced income of $0.27, supplying a surprise of -10%.
Over the ultimate four quarters, the enterprise has crushed consensus EPS estimates only once.
An earnings beat or pass over may now not be the sole basis for a inventory moving bigger or reduce. Many stocks become losing ground regardless of an profits beat as a result of other elements that disappoint traders. in a similar fashion, unforeseen catalysts support a number of shares profit regardless of an earnings leave out.
That noted, making a bet on shares which are expected to beat salary expectations does increase the odds of success. this is why it's value checking an organization's earnings ESP and Zacks Rank forward of its quarterly liberate. be certain to utilize our earnings ESP Filter to find the premiere shares to buy or sell earlier than they've mentioned.
Laredo Petroleum does not seem a compelling income-beat candidate. despite the fact, traders should pay attention to different elements too for making a bet on this inventory or staying faraway from it forward of its earnings liberate.
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First Republic Bank (FRC) reported first-quarter 2014 adjusted earnings of 67 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 64 cents. However, the reported figure compared unfavorably with 72 cents per share earned in the year-ago quarter.
Better-than-expected results were mainly driven by revenue growth, partially offset by a rise in expenses. Capital strength and solid franchise development were the other tailwinds.
Including certain one-time items, the company reported net income of $114.7 million, down 6.4% from the prior-year quarter. Net income available to the common shareholders was $100.8 million, down 12.2% from the prior-year quarter.
Performance in Detail
Total revenue was $362.2 million, up 7.8% year over year. Excluding the impact of purchase accounting, First Republic’s core revenue came in at $381.7 million, up 3.1% year over year but below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $382.0 million.
First Republic’s net interest income increased 7.6% year over year to $320.7 million. Excluding the impact of purchase accounting, net interest income was $301.2 million, up 14.2% from the year-ago quarter.
However, core net interest margin fell 25 basis points (bps) year over year to 3.17%. Excluding the impact of purchase accounting, margin was 3.37%, down 50 bps year over year.
The company’s non-interest income came in at $61.0 million, down 15.6% year over year. The decline was primarily owing to a significant fall in proceeds from the sale of loans.
Non-interest expense was $213.4 million, up 17.4% year over year. An increase in salaries and employee benefits, expenses related to technology platform and professional fees primarily led to this rise.
Core efficiency ratio stood at 58.9% as compared with 54.1% in the prior-year quarter. Excluding the impact of purchase accounting, the ratio was 57.0% as against 50.4% in the prior-year quarter. An increase in efficiency ratio indicates decline in profitability.
First Republic’s credit quality was mixed in the quarter under review. On a year-over-year basis, the provision for credit losses increased 9.5% to $7.1 million and total nonperforming assets rose 10.9 % to $55.3 million.Further, nonperforming assets to total assets ratio was 0.12%, down from 0.14% in the year-ago quarter. As of Dec 31, 2013, the ratio of net loan charge-offs to average total loans was 0.01%, up from 0.00% the prior-year period.
Asset and Capital Position
During the reported quarter, First Republic’s capital ratios were a mixed bag. As of Mar 31, 2014, the company’s Tier 1 leverage ratio was 9.85% versus 9.36% as of Mar 31, 2013.
Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio was 14.07% compared with 13.53% as of Mar 31, 2013. Further, book value per share came in at $26.21, up from $22.97 at the end of the prior-year quarter.
Net loans increased 22.9% year over year to $34.4 billion as of Mar 31, 2014, while total deposits rose 25.0 % to $33.6 billion.
First Republic announced an increase in its quarterly cash dividend for the first quarter to 14 cents per share, which is payable on May 15, 2014 to shareholders of record as of May 1, 2014.
We expect First Republic’s growth gaining momentum owing to its balance sheet strength. Moreover, rise in loans and deposits indicate the company’s good organic growth prospects.
However, higher interest expenses and non-interest expenses are causes of concern. An unsettled economic environment and stringent regulations are the other challenges.
First Republic currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Among other Western banks, BBCN Bancorp, Inc. (BBCN) is scheduled to report first-quarter results on Apr 21, while SVB Financial Group (SIVB) and City National Corporation (CYN) are expected to report on Apr 24.
Read the Full Research Report on CYNRead the Full Research Report on SIVBRead the Full Research Report on BBCNRead the Full Research Report on FRC
Zacks Investment Research
CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--GATX Corporation (NYSE:GMT) today reported 2015 third quarter net income of $39.5 million or $0.91 per diluted share, compared to net income of $51.3 million or $1.14 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2014. Net income through September 2015 was $147.1 million or $3.33 per diluted share, compared to $146.5 million or $3.18 per diluted share in the prior year period. The 2015 third quarter and year-to-date results include a net after-tax loss of $26.6 million, or $0.61 per diluted share related to the company’s decision to exit the majority of its marine investments within the Portfolio Management segment.
“The North American railcar leasing environment in 2015 has been consistent with our initial outlook,” said Brian A. Kenney, president and chief executive officer of GATX. “Certain North American car types, especially coal cars, are experiencing decreasing demand. However, GATX’s Lease Price Index, renewal metrics, and remarketing income all remain strong. Rail North America’s utilization remains extremely high at 99.2%, reflecting the composition and term structure of GATX’s diverse fleet.”
“Rail International, particularly our European fleet, continues to achieve solid operating results. At American Steamship Company, favorable weather conditions, higher water levels, and spot cargoes helped to partially offset softening demand for iron ore on the Great Lakes.”
“During the third-quarter of 2015 we made a strategic decision to exit the majority of our marine investments within our Portfolio Management segment. Although our investments in inland marine assets historically performed very well for GATX, our investments in ocean-going vessels have experienced significant earnings volatility. Given that inland marine and ocean-going investments are no longer core to GATX, we are opting to monetize these investments. The investments in Rolls-Royce and Partners Finance are unaffected by this decision and these joint ventures continue to perform very well.”
Mr. Kenney concluded, “We expect our 2015 full-year earnings to be at the upper range of our previously stated estimate of $5.15 to $5.35 per diluted share, excluding any impact of the exit from Portfolio Management’s marine investments.”
“Looking longer-term, the growing over-supply of tank cars is decreasing tank car renewal rates and making it more difficult to place new tank cars delivering in 2016. Our early recognition of the impending changes in the tank car market was the backdrop for our strategy to lock in attractive lease rates for longer terms and maintain a disciplined investment strategy. As a result of this strategy, our committed lease revenues are at record levels, and this base of stable cash flow will serve us well when the environment for more attractive investment opportunities develops.”
RAIL NORTH AMERICA
Rail North America reported segment profit of $90.0 million in the third quarter of 2015, compared to $70.6 million in the third quarter of 2014. The increase in quarterly segment profit was primarily attributable to improved utilization and higher lease rates across the fleet.
Year to date, Rail North America reported segment profit of $280.7 million, compared to $237.3 million in the same period of 2014. The increase in year-to-date segment profit was driven by increased lease revenue from higher lease rates as well as a nine-month contribution and higher utilization from the acquired boxcar fleet compared to six months at a lower utilization rate in the prior year.
At September 30, 2015, Rail North America’s wholly owned fleet was approximately 125,000 cars, including more than 18,500 boxcars. The following fleet statistics exclude the boxcar fleet.
Fleet utilization was 99.2% at the end of the third quarter, compared to 99.3% at the end of the prior quarter and 98.8% at the end of the third quarter of 2014. During the third quarter, the GATX Lease Price Index (“LPI”), a weighted average lease renewal rate for a group of railcars representative of Rail North America's fleet, increased 25.6% over the weighted average expiring lease rate. This compares to a 36.3% increase in the prior quarter and a 46.9% increase in the third quarter of 2014. A lackluster coal market continues to negatively impact GATX’s LPI. The average lease renewal term for all cars included in the LPI during the third quarter was 60 months, compared to 54 months in the prior quarter and 68 months in the third quarter of 2014. Asset remarketing income was approximately $10.5 million during the quarter, and total investment volume was nearly $98 million.
Additional fleet statistics, including information on the boxcar fleet, and macroeconomic data related to Rail North America’s business are provided on the last page of this press release.
Rail International's segment profit was $15.5 million in the third quarter of 2015, compared to $19.7 million in the third quarter of 2014. Rail International reported segment profit of $56.4 million year-to-date 2015, compared to $59.8 million for the same period in 2014. The decrease in the segment profit was driven primarily by the effects of a weaker Euro. These foreign exchange rate impacts have been partially offset by higher lease revenue and lower maintenance costs at GATX Rail Europe (“GRE”).
At September 30, 2015, GRE's fleet consisted of approximately 22,800 cars and utilization was 95.7%, compared to 95.5% at the end of the second quarter and 95.1% at the end of the third quarter of 2014.
Additional fleet statistics for GATX Rail Europe are provided on the last page of this press release.
AMERICAN STEAMSHIP COMPANY
American Steamship Company (“ASC”) reported a segment profit of $10.9 million in the third quarter of 2015 compared to segment profit of $15.2 million in the third quarter of 2014. Segment profit year-to-date 2015 was $13.4 million, compared to $17.1 million year-to-date 2014. ASC carried 19.5 million net tons of cargo through the third quarter of 2015, compared to 19.6 million net tons in the prior year period. The decrease in segment profit was driven by commodity and trade mix variances.
In the third quarter of 2015, Portfolio Management recorded a segment loss of $17.3 million, including a net pre-tax loss of approximately $42.5 million ($26.6 million after-tax) associated with the planned exit of the majority of Portfolio Management’s marine investments. The loss associated with this exit taken in the third quarter is expected to be partially offset by inland marine-related disposition gains that we expect to achieve in the fourth quarter.
Segment profit year-to-date 2015 was $8.9 million, compared to $40.1 million year-to-date 2014. The decrease in year-to-date segment profit was due to a net loss associated with the planned exit from Portfolio Management’s marine investments.
GATX Corporation (NYSE:GMT) strives to be recognized as the finest railcar leasing company in the world by its customers, its shareholders, its employees and the communities where it operates. As the largest global railcar lessor, GATX has been providing quality railcars and services to its customers for more than 116 years. GATX has been headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, since its founding in 1898. For more information, please visit the Company's website at www.gatx.com.
GATX Corporation will host a teleconference to discuss 2015 third-quarter results. Call details are as follows:
Thursday, October 22nd11:00 A.M. Eastern TimeDomestic Dial-In: 1-877-675-4753International Dial-In: 1-719-325-4810Replay: 1-888-203-1112 or 1-719-457-0820/Access Code: 216717
Call-in details, a copy of this press release and real-time audio access are available at www.gatx.com. Please access the call 15 minutes prior to the start time. Following the call, a replay will be available on the same site.
Forward-looking statements in this press release that are not historical facts are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These include statements that reflect our current views with respect to, among other things, future events, financial performance and market conditions. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as “may,” “could,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “seek,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “predict,” “potential,” “continue,” “likely,” “will,” “would,” and variations of these terms and similar expressions, or the negative of these terms or similar expressions. Specific risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, (1) changes in regulatory requirements for tank cars carrying crude, ethanol, and other flammable liquids, (2) competitive factors in our primary markets, (3) inability to maintain our assets on lease at satisfactory rates, (4) weak economic conditions, financial market volatility, and other factors that may decrease demand for our assets and services, (5) changes to, or failure to comply with, laws, rules, and regulations applicable to our assets and operations, (6) operational disruption and increased costs associated with compliance maintenance programs and other maintenance initiatives, (7) financial and operational risks associated with long-term railcar purchase commitments, (8) deterioration of conditions in the capital markets, reductions in our credit ratings, or increases in our financing costs, (9) events having an adverse impact on assets, customers, or regions where we have a large investment, (10) decreased demand for certain railcars used in the petroleum industry due to sustained low crude-oil prices, (11) risks related to international operations and expansion into new geographic markets, (12) inadequate allowances to cover credit losses in our portfolio, (13) asset impairment charges we may be required to recognize, (14) environmental remediation costs or a negative outcome in our pending or threatened litigation, (15) inability to obtain cost-effective insurance, (16) fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, (17) operational and financial risks related to our affiliate investments, (18) reduced opportunities to generate asset remarketing income, (19) failure to successfully negotiate collective bargaining agreements with the unions representing a substantial portion of our employees, and (20) other risks discussed in our filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including our form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014, and our subsequently filed form 10-Q reports, all of which are available on the SEC’s website (www.sec.gov).
Investors should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made, and are not guarantees of future performance. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements.
Investor, corporate, financial, historical financial, photographic and news release information may be found at www.gatx.com.
--Tabular Follow--GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF INCOME (UNAUDITED) (In millions, except per share data)
Three Months EndedSeptember 30
Nine Months EndedSeptember 302015 2014 2015 2014 Revenues Lease revenue $ 286.2 $ 279.1 $ 845.1 $ 804.0 Marine operating revenue 77.6 98.9 167.8 188.8 Other revenue 22.4 19.2 58.3 56.8 Total Revenues 386.2 397.2 1,071.2 1,049.6 Expenses Maintenance expense 83.9 85.6 242.4 242.7 Marine operating expense 48.5 64.8 114.7 134.4 Depreciation expense 75.0 71.9 217.9 201.7 Operating lease expense 22.3 27.4 65.4 81.6 Other operating expense 8.3 8.0 23.4 21.3 Selling, general and administrative expense 44.4 45.8 134.7 133.4 Total Expenses 282.4 303.5 798.5 815.1 Other Income (Expense) Net (loss) gain on asset dispositions (4.5 ) 6.3 49.5 62.6 Interest expense, net (37.7 ) (38.1 ) (117.1 ) (119.6 ) Other expense (3.1 ) (3.1 ) (8.7 ) (11.4 ) Income before Income Taxes and Share of Affiliates’ Earnings 58.5 58.8 196.4 166.1 Income Taxes (20.3 ) (19.9 ) (68.1 ) (54.2 ) Share of Affiliates’ Earnings (net of tax) 1.3 12.4 18.8 34.6 Net Income $ 39.5 $ 51.3 $ 147.1 $ 146.5 Share Data Basic earnings per share $ 0.92 $ 1.16 $ 3.38 $ 3.24 Average number of common shares 42.8 44.4 43.5 45.3 Diluted earnings per share $ 0.91 $ 1.14 $ 3.33 $ 3.18 Average number of common shares and common share equivalents 43.4 45.2 44.1 46.1 Dividends declared per common share $ 0.38 $ 0.33 $ 1.14 $ 0.99 GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS (UNAUDITED) (In millions) September 30 December 31 2015 2014 Assets Cash and Cash Equivalents $ 116.0 $ 209.9 Restricted Cash 15.5 14.5 Receivables Rent and other receivables 90.7 86.0 Loans 9.6 97.3 Finance leases 170.5 174.7 Less: allowance for losses (6.3 ) (5.7 ) 264.5 352.3 Operating Assets and Facilities 8,141.2 8,143.5 Less: allowance for depreciation (2,487.9 ) (2,455.5 ) 5,653.3 5,688.0 Investments in Affiliated Companies 364.1 357.7 Goodwill 81.4 86.1 Other Assets 409.9 229.0 Total Assets $ 6,904.7 $ 6,937.5 Liabilities and Shareholders’ Equity Accounts Payable and Accrued Expenses $ 148.7 $ 165.9 Debt Commercial paper and borrowings under bank credit facilities 18.1 72.1 Recourse 4,271.2 4,179.9 Nonrecourse 9.2 15.9 Capital lease obligations 3.6 6.3 4,302.1 4,274.2 Deferred Income Taxes 987.1 937.3 Other Liabilities 197.8 246.1 Total Liabilities 5,635.7 5,623.5 Total Shareholders’ Equity 1,269.0 1,314.0 Total Liabilities and Shareholders’ Equity $ 6,904.7 $ 6,937.5 GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES SEGMENT DATA (UNAUDITED) Three Months Ended September 30, 2015 (In millions)
Portfolio GATX Rail N.A.
Rail Int’lASC Management Other Consolidated Revenues Lease revenue $ 234.9 $ 44.1 $ 1.1 $ 6.1 $ — $ 286.2 Marine operating revenue — — 61.7 15.9 — 77.6 Other revenue 20.3 1.7 — 0.4 — 22.4 Total Revenues 255.2 45.8 62.8 22.4 — 386.2 Expenses Maintenance expense 66.7 9.9 7.3 — — 83.9 Marine operating expense — — 36.7 11.8 — 48.5 Depreciation expense 54.5 11.1 4.7 4.7 — 75.0 Operating lease expense 20.6 (0.1 ) 1.8 — — 22.3 Other operating expense 6.8 1.1 — 0.4 — 8.3 Total Expenses 148.6 22.0 50.5 16.9 — 238.0 Other Income (Expense) Net gain (loss) on asset dispositions 11.5 0.5 — (16.5 ) — (4.5 ) Interest expense, net (27.0 ) (7.0 ) (1.4 ) (4.7 ) 2.4 (37.7 ) Other expense (1.2 ) (1.8 ) — — (0.1 ) (3.1 ) Share of affiliates’ earnings (pretax) (1) 0.1 — — (1.6 ) — (1.5 ) Segment Profit (Loss) $ 90.0 $ 15.5 $ 10.9 $ (17.3 ) $ 2.3 $ 101.4 Selling, general and administrative expense 44.4 Income taxes (includes $2.8 tax benefit related to affiliates’ earnings) 17.5 Net Income $ 39.5
Selected Data:Investment Volume $ 97.8 $ 40.9 $ 0.8 $ 1.9 $ 0.7 $ 142.1 Net Gain on Asset Dispositions
Asset Remarketing Income:Disposition gains on owned assets $ 10.2 $ — $ — $ 7.2 $ — $ 17.4 Residual sharing income 0.3 — — 7.3 — 7.6 Non-remarketing disposition gains (2) 1.0 0.6 — — — 1.6 Asset impairment — (0.1 ) — (31.0 ) — (31.1 ) Total Net Gain on Asset Dispositions $ 11.5 $ 0.5 $ — $ (16.5 ) $ — $ (4.5 )
(1) Includes a $19.0 million impairment loss in the Portfolio Management segment.
(2) Includes scrapping gains.GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES SEGMENT DATA (UNAUDITED) Three Months Ended September 30, 2014 (In millions)
Portfolio GATX Rail N.A.
Rail Int’lASC Management Other Consolidated Revenues Lease revenue $ 222.6 $ 47.9 $ 1.1 $ 7.5 $ — $ 279.1 Marine operating revenue — — 82.7 16.2 — 98.9 Other revenue 15.7 2.3 — 1.2 — 19.2 Total Revenues 238.3 50.2 83.8 24.9 — 397.2 Expenses Maintenance expense 65.7 11.0 8.9 — — 85.6 Marine operating expense — — 52.2 12.6 — 64.8 Depreciation expense 49.7 11.9 4.5 5.8 — 71.9 Operating lease expense 25.6 — 1.8 — — 27.4 Other operating expense 6.1 1.2 — 0.7 — 8.0 Total Expenses 147.1 24.1 67.4 19.1 — 257.7 Other Income (Expense) Net gain on asset dispositions 4.4 0.8 — 1.1 — 6.3 Interest expense, net (24.1 ) (6.0 ) (1.4 ) (5.8 ) (0.8 ) (38.1 ) Other expense (1.0 ) (1.1 ) 0.2 (1.4 ) 0.2 (3.1 ) Share of affiliates’ earnings (pretax) 0.1 (0.1 ) — 17.0 — 17.0 Segment Profit (Loss) $ 70.6 $ 19.7 $ 15.2 $ 16.7 $ (0.6 ) $ 121.6 Selling, general and administrative expense 45.8 Income taxes (includes $4.6 related to affiliates’ earnings) 24.5 Net Income $ 51.3
Selected Data:Investment Volume $ 118.9 $ 45.6 $ 0.9 $ 5.0 $ 1.1 $ 171.5 Net Gain on Asset Dispositions
Asset Remarketing Income:Disposition gains on owned assets $ 1.2 $ — $ — $ — $ — $ 1.2 Residual sharing income 0.1 — — 1.1 — 1.2 Non-remarketing disposition gains (1) 3.1 0.9 — — — 4.0 Asset impairment — (0.1 ) — — — (0.1 ) Total Net Gain on Asset Dispositions $ 4.4 $ 0.8 $ — $ 1.1 $ — $ 6.3
(1) Includes scrapping gains.GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES SEGMENT DATA (UNAUDITED) Nine Months Ended September 30, 2015 (In millions)
Portfolio GATX Rail N.A.
Rail Int’lASC Management Other Consolidated Revenues Lease revenue $ 694.3 $ 128.6 $ 3.1 $ 19.1 $ — $ 845.1 Marine operating revenue — — 119.7 48.1 — 167.8 Other revenue 51.8 5.3 — 1.2 — 58.3 Total Revenues 746.1 133.9 122.8 68.4 — 1,071.2 Expenses Maintenance expense 199.7 28.2 14.5 — — 242.4 Marine operating expense — — 77.7 37.0 — 114.7 Depreciation expense 160.1 32.6 9.6 15.6 — 217.9 Operating lease expense 62.0 — 3.5 — (0.1 ) 65.4 Other operating expense 18.1 3.5 — 1.8 — 23.4 Total Expenses 439.9 64.3 105.3 54.4 (0.1 ) 663.8 Other Income (Expense) Net gain (loss) on asset dispositions 54.4 6.5 — (11.4 ) — 49.5 Interest expense, net (76.1 ) (16.5 ) (4.0 ) (15.5 ) (5.0 ) (117.1 ) Other expense (4.2 ) (3.0 ) (0.1 ) — (1.4 ) (8.7 ) Share of affiliates’ earnings (pretax) (1) 0.4 (0.2 ) — 21.8 — 22.0 Segment Profit (Loss) $ 280.7 $ 56.4 $ 13.4 $ 8.9 $ (6.3 ) $ 353.1 Selling, general and administrative expense 134.7 Income taxes (includes $3.2 related to affiliates’ earnings) 71.3 Net Income $ 147.1
Selected Data:Investment Volume $ 362.8 $ 110.1 $ 20.3 $ 2.2 $ 2.9 $ 498.3 Net Gain on Asset Dispositions
Asset Remarketing Income:Disposition gains on owned assets $ 51.1 $ — $ — $ 9.3 $ — $ 60.4 Residual sharing income 0.7 — — 10.3 — 11.0 Non-remarketing disposition gains (2) 2.6 6.7 — — — 9.3 Asset impairment — (0.2 ) — (31.0 ) — (31.2 ) Total Net Gain on Asset Dispositions $ 54.4 $ 6.5 $ — $ (11.4 ) $ — $ 49.5
(1) Includes a $19.0 million impairment loss in the Portfolio Management segment.
(2) Includes scrapping gains.GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES SEGMENT DATA (UNAUDITED) Nine Months Ended September 30, 2014 (In millions) Portfolio GATX Rail N.A. Rail Int’l ASC Management Other Consolidated Revenues Lease revenue $ 635.7 $ 142.8 $ 3.2 $ 22.3 $ — $ 804.0 Marine operating revenue — — 145.2 43.6 — 188.8 Other revenue 46.4 6.7 — 3.7 — 56.8 Total Revenues 682.1 149.5 148.4 69.6 — 1,049.6 Expenses Maintenance expense 192.2 34.1 16.4 — — 242.7 Marine operating expense — — 97.9 36.5 — 134.4 Depreciation expense 140.3 35.4 8.9 17.1 — 201.7 Operating lease expense 78.2 — 3.5 — (0.1 ) 81.6 Other operating expense 16.1 3.6 — 1.6 — 21.3 Total Expenses 426.8 73.1 126.7 55.2 (0.1 ) 681.7 Other Income (Expense) Net gain (loss) on asset dispositions 53.1 5.8 (0.4 ) 4.1 — 62.6 Interest expense, net (74.0 ) (18.4 ) (4.2 ) (18.7 ) (4.3 ) (119.6 ) Other (expense) income (4.7 ) (3.8 ) — (1.1 ) (1.8 ) (11.4 ) Share of affiliates’ earnings (pretax) 7.6 (0.2 ) — 41.4 — 48.8 Segment Profit (Loss) $ 237.3 $ 59.8 $ 17.1 $ 40.1 $ (6.0 ) $ 348.3 Selling, general and administrative expense 133.4 Income taxes (includes $14.2 related to affiliates’ earnings) 68.4 Net Income $ 146.5
Selected Data:Investment Volume $ 660.7 $ 127.2 $ 16.9 $ 17.0 $ 4.8 $ 826.6 Net Gain on Asset Dispositions
Asset Remarketing Income:Disposition gains on owned assets $ 40.5 $ 0.6 $ — $ 0.5 $ — $ 41.6 Residual sharing income 4.5 — — 3.5 — 8.0 Non-remarketing disposition gains (1) 8.1 5.3 — — — 13.4 Asset impairment — (0.1 ) (0.4 ) 0.1 — (0.4 ) Total Net Gain on Asset Dispositions $ 53.1 $ 5.8 $ (0.4 ) $ 4.1 $ — $ 62.6
(1) Includes scrapping gains.GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION (UNAUDITED) (In millions, except per share data)
Impact of Other Items on Net Income:Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended September 30 September 30 2015 2014 2015 2014
Other ItemsDisposition of marine investments (26.6 ) — (26.6 ) — Total impact on Net Income $ (26.6 ) $ — $ (26.6 ) $ —
Impact of Other Items on Diluted Earnings per Share:Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended September 30 September 30 2015 2014 2015 2014
Other ItemsDisposition of marine investments (0.61 ) — (0.61 ) — Total impact on Diluted Earnings per Share $ (0.61 ) $ — $ (0.61 ) $ —
We highlight these items to allow for a more meaningful comparison of financial performance between years and to provide transparency into the operating results of our business.GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION (UNAUDITED) (In millions, except leverage) (Continued) 9/30/2014 12/31/2014 3/31/2015 6/30/2015 9/30/2015
Assets by Segment (includes off-balance-sheet assets)Rail North America $ 4,902.2 $ 4,939.9 $ 5,057.6 $ 5,081.2 $ 5,076.7 Rail International 1,220.1 1,193.0 1,029.1 1,075.2 1,101.2 ASC 304.2 298.3 283.8 317.0 304.9 Portfolio Management 814.2 811.4 792.1 793.4 730.7 Other 118.1 88.3 103.4 87.8 98.6 Total Assets, excluding cash $ 7,358.8 $ 7,330.9 $ 7,266.0 $ 7,354.6 $ 7,312.1
Capital StructureCommercial paper and bank credit facilities, net of unrestricted cash $ (0.2 ) $ (137.8 ) $ (348.6 ) $ (54.8 ) $ (97.9 ) On-balance-sheet recourse debt 4,081.8 4,179.9 4,443.8 4,208.1 4,271.2 On-balance-sheet nonrecourse debt 18.1 15.9 13.7 11.5 9.2 Off-balance-sheet recourse debt 562.9 566.7 527.4 519.1 493.5 Off-balance-sheet nonrecourse debt 52.9 51.1 49.2 47.4 45.4 Capital lease obligations 6.3 6.3 5.0 5.0 3.6 Total Borrowings, net of unrestricted cash $ 4,721.8 $ 4,682.1 $ 4,690.5 $ 4,736.3 $ 4,725.0 Total Recourse Debt (1) $ 4,650.8 $ 4,615.1 $ 4,627.6 $ 4,677.4 $ 4,670.4 Shareholders’ Equity $ 1,331.2 $ 1,314.0 $ 1,282.5 $ 1,285.4 $ 1,269.0 Recourse Leverage (2) 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7
_________(1) Includes on- and off-balance-sheet recourse debt; capital lease obligations; commercial paper and bank credit facilities, net of unrestricted cash. (2) Calculated as total recourse debt / shareholder's equity.
Reconciliation of Total Assets to Total Assets (Including Off-Balance-Sheet Assets), Excluding Cash:Total Assets $ 6,816.3 $ 6,937.5 $ 7,056.4 $ 6,860.0 $ 6,904.7 Less: cash (73.3 ) (224.4 ) (367.0 ) (71.9 ) (131.5 ) Add off-balance-sheet assets: Rail North America 602.9 606.1 566.1 557.2 530.9 ASC 12.9 11.7 10.5 9.3 8.0 Total Assets, excluding cash $ 7,358.8 $ 7,330.9 $ 7,266.0 $ 7,354.6 $ 7,312.1 GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION (UNAUDITED) (Continued) 9/30/2014 12/31/2014 3/31/2015 6/30/2015 9/30/2015
Rail North America StatisticsLease Price Index (LPI) (1) Average renewal lease rate change 46.9 % 39.2 % 43.2 % 36.3 % 25.6 % Average renewal term (months) 68 67 59 54 60 Fleet Rollforward (2) Beginning balance 106,894 107,387 107,343 106,949 106,984 Cars added 958 835 1,013 823 620 Cars scrapped (440 ) (202 ) (261 ) (347 ) (396 ) Cars sold (25 ) (677 ) (1,146 ) (441 ) (816 ) Ending balance 107,387 107,343 106,949 106,984 106,392 Utilization 98.8 % 99.2 % 99.3 % 99.3 % 99.2 % Average active railcars 105,755 106,569 106,541 106,211 105,896 Boxcar Fleet Ending balance 19,146 19,021 18,912 18,651 18,567 Utilization 91.3 % 92.7 % 92.8 % 97.3 % 96.6 %
Rail Europe StatisticsFleet Rollforward Beginning balance 21,684 21,960 22,451 22,497 22,483 Cars added 481 657 249 301 412 Cars scrapped/sold (205 ) (166 ) (203 ) (315 ) (150 ) Ending balance 21,960 22,451 22,497 22,483 22,745 Utilization 95.1 % 95.9 % 95.9 % 95.5 % 95.7 % Average active railcars 20,833 21,111 21,479 21,427 21,630
Rail North America Industry StatisticsManufacturing Capacity Utilization Index (3) 79.5 % 79.5 % 79.0 % 77.5 % 77.5 % Year-over-year Change in U.S. Carloadings (excl. intermodal) (4) 3.6 % 3.9 % 0.3 % (3.8 )% (4.4 )% Year-over-year Change in U.S. Carloadings (chemical) (4) 1.5 % 1.2 % 1.8 % 0.4 % 0.5 % Year-over-year Change in U.S. Carloadings (petroleum) (4) 12.8 % 12.7 % 0.4 % (1.1 )% (5.9 )% Production Backlog at Railcar Manufacturers (5) 124,437 142,837 138,856 135,805 122,591
American Steamship Company StatisticsTotal Net Tons Carried (millions) 11.3 10.9 0.8 8.4 10.3
_________(1) GATX's Lease Price Index ("LPI") is an internally-generated business indicator that measures lease rate pricing on renewals within our North American railcar fleet, excluding the boxcar fleet. The index is calculated using the weighted average lease rate for a group of railcar types that GATX believes best represents its overall North American fleet, excluding boxcars. The average renewal lease rate change is reported as the percentage change between the average renewal lease rate and the average expiring lease rate, weighted by fleet composition. The average renewal lease term is reported in months and reflects the average renewal lease term of railcar types in the LPI, weighted by fleet composition. (2) Excludes boxcar fleet. (3) As reported and revised by the Federal Reserve. (4) As reported by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). (5) As reported by the Railway Supply Institute (RSI).
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