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February eleven, 2019 Timothy Prickett Morgan
If nothing else, the IBM i platform has exhibited extraordinary durability. One could even say legendary longevity, if you wish to take its historical past the entire means lower back to the gadget/3 minicomputer from 1969. here's the precise starting point within the AS/four hundred household tree and this is when large Blue, for very sound felony and technical and advertising causes, determined to fork its products to handle the pleasing wants of tremendous businesses (with the equipment/360 mainframe and its observe-ons) and small and medium businesses (starting with the gadget/3 and moving on in the course of the equipment/34, gadget/32, device/38, and gadget/36 within the Seventies and early Nineteen Eighties and passing during the AS/400, AS/400e, iSeries, device i, and then IBM i on vigour programs systems.
It has been a long run certainly, and a lot of valued clientele who've invested within the platform all started means lower back then and there with the early models of RPG and moved their functions ahead and adjusted them as their corporations advanced and the depth and breadth of company computing modified, relocating on up through RPG II, RPG III, RPG IV, ILE RPG, and now RPG free kind. Being on this platform for even three a long time makes you a relative newcomer.
there is a longer run ahead, in view that we consider that the corporations which are nevertheless operating IBM i techniques are the real diehards, those who don't have any intention of leaving the platform and that, at the least based on the survey facts we have been privy too, are desiring to proceed investing in, or even expand their investments in, the IBM i platform.
so far, we are not in a recession and heaven willing there aren't one, so the priorities that IBM i shops have aren't the ones that that they had a decade ago all over the height of the top notch Recession. again then, as was the case in well-nigh all IT corporations, IBM i shops have been hunkering down and had been trying to cut charges in all approaches viable, together with deferring gadget improvements and migrations in addition to chopping again on other tasks. only 29 p.c of the 750 IBM i stores that participated within the 2019 IBM i marketplace Survey, which HelpSystems did returned in October 2018, have been worried about cutting back IT spending. this is a remarkably low stage, and that i feel is indicative of how fairly strong the economic system is – excepting one of the vital fits and begins we noticed on the conclusion of 2018 and here in early 2019 that make us anxious and will start inserting force on things. listed below are the proper concerns as culled from the survey:
coping with the boom in records and in identifying the analytics to bite on that information ranked a little bit bigger on the 2019 IBM i industry Survey than did decreasing expenses, and that i feel over the long haul these issues will turn into extra crucial than modernizing purposes and coping with the IBM i potential shortages which are a perennial be troubled. both of those concerns are being solved as new programmers and new equipment to make new interfaces to database purposes have become extra normal and as technologies such as free kind RPG, which appears more like Java, Python, and Hypertext Preprocessor, are being greater widely deployed and, importantly, will also be picked up more quickly with the aid of programmers experienced with these different languages.
Given the character of the customer base, it looks unlikely to me that protection and excessive availability will not continue to be simple issues, besides the fact that children that the IBM i platform is among the most relaxed platforms on earth (and never just because it is imprecise, however since it is enormously problematic to hack) and it has a number excessive availability and catastrophe recuperation equipment (from IBM, Syncsort, Maxava, and HelpSystems) obtainable for people that wish to double up their programs and give protection to their functions and records. The bar is regularly greater than simple backup and recovery for a lot of IBM i retail outlets in the banking, insurance, manufacturing, and distribution industries that dominate the platform. These groups can’t have security breaches, and they can’t have downtime.
there's a amazing volume of stability within the IBM i client base that we believe, at this point, is reflective within the balance of the IBM i platform and massive Blue’s own belief that it wants a in shape IBM i platform to have an average in shape power programs business. all of us comprehend that the vigor methods hardware enterprise has simply grew to become in 5 quarters of revenue boom – something we mentioned lately in establishing our personal revenue model for the power programs company – however what we didn't comprehend, and what make sure you be aware of, is that in the 2nd and third quarters of 2018, the IBM i element of the company grew greatly faster than the ordinary vigour systems enterprise, and the simplest rationale that this didn't take place in the ultimate quarter of 2018 is that revenue of IBM i equipment in this autumn 2017 changed into quite robust and represented a extremely difficult examine. The element is, the IBM i business has been elevating the energy methods classification typical. (These recommendations about the IBM i business come compliments of Steve Sibley, vice chairman and offering supervisor of Cognitive systems at IBM.)
IBM’s own financial stability of the power platform – which has been bolstered with the aid of a circulation into Linux clusters for analytics and excessive performance computing simulation and modeling in addition to with the aid of the adoption of the HANA in-memory database by using SAP purchasers on big iron machines together with Power8 and now Power9 methods – helps IBM i clients believe greater assured in investing within the current IBM i platform. The contemporary proof from several distinctive surveys, no longer simply the one achieved with the aid of HelpSystems every year, means that companies are with the aid of and big both continuing to invest in the platform and even in some situations are planning to increase their spending on the IBM i platform in 2019.
As that you can see, the sample of investment plans for the IBM i platform, as shown within the chart above, has now not modified very plenty in any respect in the past four years. it's a remarkably stable pattern with but a bit wiggling right here and there that may not even be statistically huge. simply below 1 / 4 of IBM i retail outlets have stated during the past 4 years that they plan to increase their funding in the platform in every yr, and just beneath half say that they are retaining steady. This doesn't imply that the identical businesses, 12 months after 12 months, are investing more and different companies are staying pat, yr after 12 months. it is much more seemingly that every handful of years – more like 4 or five – customers improve their programs and expand their capacity, and that they then sit down tight. The wonder is that the break up isn’t displaying some distance fewer groups investing and much extra sitting tight. That greater than a tenth of the shops don’t comprehend what their plan is as each and every prior year involves a close is a bit of traumatic, nonetheless it is honest and suggests that a significant portion of shops produce other priorities aside from hardware and operating device upgrades. we have pointed out this before and we can say it once more: We believe that the individuals who respond to surveys and browse weekly publications focused on the IBM i platform are the most active shops – those extra more likely to stay fairly current on hardware and software. So the tempo of adoption for new applied sciences, and the expense of funding, may still be better than in the actual base, a good deal of which doesn't trade lots in any respect.
So if we had to regulate this facts to take on the whole base, there could be some distance fewer sites which are investing extra money, much more agencies which are sitting tight, and perhaps fewer sites that are deliberating moving off the IBM i platform. I believe the distribution of information is doubtless whatever like 10 p.c of shops haven't any concept what they're doing investment clever with IBM this 12 months, 5 percent are considering moving some or all of their functions to a further platform, possibly 10 percent are investing greater this year, and the closing 75 % are sitting tight. here is just a bet, of course. so far as we will inform, the cost of attrition – what number of websites we in reality lose each and every 12 months – only a tad over 1 percent. So the cost of stream of applications off the platform, or incidences of unplugging IBM i databases and applications, might also no longer be anyplace near as high within the overall base because the records above suggests. what's alarming, possibly, is that the cost of moving some or all functions off the platform is balanced towards people who say they'll enhance investments. possibly these are hopeful survey takers, and people who suppose it is easy to stream discover it is not and those who think they're going to discover the funds to invest will no longer.
What we do be aware of is that if the expense of software attrition become any place close as high as these surveys indicate, then the IBM i enterprise would no longer be transforming into, however shrinking. And we are aware of it is not shrinking, so we suppose there's a disconnect between planning and fact, both on the upside and the draw back.
in case you drill down into the statistics for the 2019 IBM i market Survey, there were 13 % of shops that pointed out they might be moving some functions to a new platform, and one more 9 percent that noted they had been going to movement all of their applications off IBM i. (This quantity is consistent with the fresh ALL400s survey finished through John Rockwell.)
Anyway, respectable success with that.
Porting purposes from one platform to a different, of purchasing a new suite on that new platform, is an enormously difficult project. It isn't like trying to alternate a tire while using down the road, as is a common metaphor, but somewhat like trying to take the tire off one motor vehicle moving down the toll road and installing it on a further automobile driving beside it in the adjoining lane with out crashing either motor vehicle or smashing into any individual else on the street. Optimism abounds, however when push comes to shove, very few businesses are attempting the sort of maneuver, and when they do, it's always as a result of there is a company mandate, more times than now not caused with the aid of a merger or acquisition, that pits any other platform against IBM i running on vigor programs. organizations that say they are making the sort of flow off IBM i are sanguine for their own very own causes, perhaps, but they are not always useful about how long it may take, what disruption it is going to charge, and what most efficient benefit, if any, could be realized.
if you do the maths on the chart above, eight-tenths of the bottom has no conception how long a movement will take, one more 1.7 percent thinks it is going to take greater than 5 years, and 3 p.c say it is going to take between two years and five years. most effective 3.4 percent of the total base say they could do it in beneath two years. We consider all of those numbers are confident, and the groups who could comfortably leave OS/four hundred and IBM i already did a long time ago and people which are remain have a tougher time, no longer a less complicated time, relocating. If this were no longer proper, the IBM i base could be a hell of an awful lot smaller than the 120,000 consumers we believe are obtainable, in response to what large Blue has instructed us in the past. here is the difference between fear or pressure or culture and the reality of making an attempt to movement a business off one platform and onto another. These strikes are all the time a whole lot more durable than they seem on the entrance conclusion, and we suspect lots of the merits also don’t materialize for those who do jump platforms.
at the standard attrition rate advised via this survey records – 9 p.c stream off the platform in someplace between 365 days and greater than five years, with most corporations no longer being capable of see more than five years into the longer term this is a neat trick – the installed base would decrease dramatically. it's difficult to assert how a long way on account of the wide selection of timeframes in the survey. If it changed into 9 p.c of the base within two years – call it 4.5 % of the bottom per year – then inside a decade the average base would decrease from 120,000 IBM i sites global down to about 72,000. this could dramatic certainly. but at a 1 percent attrition cost per yr, the bottom continues to be at 107,500 entertaining shoppers (now not websites and not installed machines, each of which might be better) by using 2029. We suppose there is each probability that the attrition price will in fact sluggish and drop underneath 1 % as IBM demonstrates commitment to the vigor methods platform and its IBM i operating system. There are all the time some new shoppers being delivered in new markets, to be certain, but the bleed cost (however it's small) continues to be probably an order of magnitude higher than the feed fee.
after they do believe about making the circulate, IBM i retail outlets understand precisely the place they want to go, and this answer has been regularly altering over the years: Linux as a substitute for IBM i is on the upward push and home windows Server as an choice is on the wane. in the latest survey, 52 percent of the corporations that mentioned they had been moving all or a few of their functions to an extra platform pointed out they had been selecting windows Server, while 34 p.c selected Linux. This reflects the relative popularity of home windows Server and Linux in the datacenters of the realm at enormous, and might be tipped just a little greater heavily towards Linux compared to the rest of the realm. interestingly, 10 % of those polled who mentioned they had been relocating have been looking at AIX platforms, and another 4 % have been going upscale to system z mainframes – as not going as this may look. structures are likely to roll downhill; they do not usually defy gravity like that.
The factor about such surveys is that they reveal intent, no longer motion. We commonly intend to do much more than we in fact can accomplish, and relocating systems after spending a long time of build up potential is not continually a really sensible circulation unless the platform is in real concern – just like the Itanium systems from Hewlett Packard business operating OpenVMS or HP-UX or the HP 3000s operating MPE or the Sparc programs from Oracle working Solaris. These were once tremendous structures with large put in bases and tremendous income streams, but now, IBM is the final of those Unix and proprietary platforms with its vigour systems line. And it's by means of some distance the largest and for certain the only one showing any increase.related reports
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[Editor’s Note: This article is part one of a three-part series on making the transition from RPG to Java in an AS/400 shop.]
You’re dedicated to the AS/400 and advance purposes in RPG. it works first-class for you, always has. but you’ve heard so a great deal about Java being the future of AS/400 utility building, if no longer the savior of the platform. basically, nothing runs it greater than the AS/400. so you want to see what Java can do in your green-display RPG purposes.
You’re not alone. At person conferences coast-to-coast, standing-room only crowds are packing convention rooms to find out simply what Java is all about. however the transition from traditional RPG to Java doesn’t ensue in a single day. IBM has outlined five phases AS/four hundred retail outlets may still go through alongside the highway to Java.
this article offers with phase I – upgrading RPG III and CL to RPG IV and ILE CL.
Why upgrade to RPG IV? firstly, IBM isn't any longer investing in RPG III. For that matter, it simplest invests in RISC versions of RPG IV. Secondly, RPG IV, obtainable when you consider that the V3R1 release of OS/400 4 years ago, is a more modern utility building environment.
“RPG IV is extra modular,” says George Farr, VisualAge RPG and ILE RPG IV technical building manager. “You don’t have monolithic purposes with traces and lines of code.”
moreover, RPG IV is ILE-enabled, that means it will also be integrated with purposes written in other ILE (built-in Language environment) languages like C and COBOL . “which you could combine RPG with different languages, it combines the entire lines collectively,” says Farr. “You create something in RPG, C or COBOL and run it all from a single procedure.”
Farr says RPG IV is similar to Java in language elements and syntax, notwithstanding it doesn’t have any object-oriented points like encapsulation, polymorphism and inheritance. He explains that RPG IV has structured op codes that “examine at once” to loops and “if…opt for” features in Java. information forms used by way of both languages are identical.
“if you stream straight from RPG III to Java, the researching curve is a whole lot steeper,” he says. “If it’s 50 p.c going from RPG IV to Java, it’s 80 p.c going from RPG III to Java.” And even though you don’t intend to move from RPG to Java, you’ll nonetheless should flow to RPG IV to integrate Java into your device atmosphere.
“if you’re going to have any interoperability between Java and RPG, have Java call RPG or RPG name Java, simplest RPG IV can give that enablement,” Farr says.
“As we circulation forward, I really don’t consider Java will ever exchange RPG. RPG is right here to reside. despite the fact that we wanted to kill it, what on the earth would we do with the thousands and thousands of lines of RPG code that are obtainable? if you think your latest applications don’t need Java, that you may go away them the manner they're. however you can enable Java to consult with RPG and RPG to seek advice from Java with RPG IV.”
The RPG tide is slowly turning toward RPG IV. Farr estimates that the percentage of RPG users on RPG IV changed into within the single digits in the first two years after RPG IV changed into launched. He says it’s probably in the forty-50 % range now.
“when you move to RPG IV, make sure to put money into cleansing up your RPG code,” he says. “With RPG IV’s op codes, that you can do things in a single line of code – like add a date/time stamp – that you would need to write strains of code for in RPG III. You stream to RPG IV, you turn them into methods.”
So transitioning to RPG IV gained’t flip RPG developers into Java builders. but it surely’s an important first step. Farr cautions that the thing-oriented nature of Java will also be difficult to grasp for the RPG programmer.
“Java is an object-oriented language similar to C++. It’s not being pushed by way of corporations but via the person community. Java is a very dependent language. It cleans up loads of the mess of C++, with multiple inheritance, with pointers, with garbage assortment. Java’s made it an awful lot faster to do object-oriented programming than C++. however any OO language goes to be complicated to an RPG consumer.
“It’ll be more convenient to be trained Java than C++. The language facets may be convenient to learn, however the OO facets might be extremely challenging. it will probably take individuals a few months simply to learn what OO is all about.”
Farr says not every RPG programmer will need to gain knowledge of Java. He suggests that most shops should be mixed RPG and Java. New hires is usually the Java experts.
“I see Java as unavoidable especially with the cyber web. Most agencies will need to tune in to it at some element.” if you convert your RPG III applications to RPG IV, don’t depart your CL functions in the back of. They need to be transformed to ILE CL.
“when you've got functions written in RPG III and also you convert them to RPG IV, it’s not first rate ample if your CL remains in an OPM (usual software module) environment,” says Jing Wang, senior utility engineer at IBM’s Rochester, Minn. AS/four hundred development middle. “RPG IV runs into a separate ILE action group. Sharing open data and commit manage doesn't work that smartly with CL. You need to migrate CL to ILE CL and make the whole software ILE.
“We’ve discovered lots of purposes do share open data. with out moving to ILE CL, which you could nonetheless make info shareable, nonetheless it’s now not that smooth.”
Like RPG IV, ILE CL is a need to for interfacing with Java purposes. other than being one more step alongside the highway to Java, ILE CL offers performance merits as smartly.
“When an RPG software executes an external name, performance sensible, it’s now not as good with CL,” Wang says. “if you happen to move CL to ILE and mix that CL module with the [ILE] RPG module to kind a single program object, efficiency shrewd, it’ll be more suitable than anything you had before.”
[Editor’s Note: Part two of the Road to Java series, due to run in the Jan. 11, 1999 MIDRANGE Systems, will focus on making the transition to modular ILE application development.]
if you’ve under no circumstances considered an IBM AS/four hundred machine, don’t feel bad. Most americans haven’t. added in 1988 as a mid-latitude server line, it used a unique object-based mostly working gadget and turned into geared especially towards company and business purchasers. until you’re a very massive fan of COBOL you doubtless gained’t have a whole lot use for one today, however that doesn’t suggest they aren’t value enjoying around with if the possibility presents itself.
So when a native IT enterprise went stomach up and became promoting their old hardware, including a late ninety’s era IBM AS/400e sequence, [Rik te Winkel] jumped at the opportunity to take this enjoyable piece of computing background home. He knew it became something of a chance, as protection and restore tasks for these machines were meant to be carried out by way of IBM licensed technicians rather than the DIYer, leaving little within the means of documentation and even replacement elements. however in the end it worked out, and best of all, he documented the a success process of dragging this ninety’s behemoth into the blinding gentle of the twenty-first century for all of the world to see.
After getting the computing device home and sitting via its thirty minute boot procedure, [Rik] was relieved to look the code 01 B N pop on the server’s reveal. This supposed the equipment passed all of the interior exams and changed into ready to go, he simply needed to determine the way to consult with the thing. developed to be a pure server, the computer didn’t present any video output so he’d have to log into it over the network.
[Rik] mentioned that there was no new DHCP entry in his router for the server, but of route that turned into rarely amazing because the machine would have certainly had a static IP when it changed into in use. So he shut the server down, plugged it without delay into his desktop’s Ethernet port, and watched the output of Wireshark because it went via its arduous boot sequence. finally he begun to select up packets coming from the IP address 10.10.10.9, and he had his target.
There are a few clients accessible that mean you can remotely log into an AS/400, so he downloaded one and pointed it to the server’s IP. He become surprised to peer the working system become interestingly in Dutch, however as a minimum he became in. He tried a couple of usual usernames and passwords, helped along by the incontrovertible fact that this OS from a a bit more blameless period will truly tell you when you've got the username right or incorrect, and finally managed to hack the Gibson with the classic admin/admin combo.
So he was in, however now what? [Rik] decided that he couldn’t in reality name this computing device bested except he could pull up the Hackaday Retro edition, so he begun work on writing a program to let him pull down the web page at once on the AS/400 in IBM’s proprietary document software Generator (RPG) programming language. You comprehend, as one does. He didn’t somewhat believe up to writing a whole HTML parser, but he bought as far as producing a HTTP GET request, downloading the web page’s source, and opening it up as a native file. That’s decent enough for us.
Our very personal [Al Williams] documented his adventures poking around a web-connected AS/400 laptop, which might serve as a useful primer if you ever discover one of those delightfully oddball computer systems kicking around the native recycling middle.
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As the AS/400 continues along the path of becoming an increasingly complex and interactive system, the development languages that pave the way are required to progress in order to accommodate this complexity. One concrete example of this progression is the transformation of RPG III and RPG/400 to ILE RPG, also known as RPG IV.
Recognizing the difficulty inherent in performing a language transformation, while also providing incentive for such a move, Linoma Software now offers its CVTILERPG conversion utility. CVTILERPG is designed to build upon the existing Integrated Language Environment (ILE) RPG compiler and provide a number of features not available with IBM's basic RPG conversion tool.
"Some people are just waiting for the right tool to help them convert to RPG IV," says Jeff Petermann, director of sales for Linoma Software, an Omaha, Neb.-based division of Connections 2000 Inc. "CVTILERPG is a conversion utility that goes beyond the AS/400's conversion command, which doesn't truly convert code to RPG IV format but instead allows code to function in an RPG IV world. Programmers then have to go back in and update the code manually at a later time."
While a move to RPG IV can provide a number of benefits, it is a daunting transition for companies with large quantities of RPG III legacy code that must be converted, says Bob Luebbe, president of Linoma Software and author of CVTILERPG. Luebbe also points out, however, that users want to stay current with new versions of their programming language. "In continuing to stay with RPG, they're going to continue to fall behind, as IBM continues to enhance RPG IV."
RPG IV also eliminates many of RPG III's limitations, according to Luebbe. "You used to only be able to have 50 files in an RPG III program," he says. "With RPG IV, the programmer can allow for an unlimited number of files--which can include customer files, order entry files, plus an unlimited number of other files where data is stored. In RPG III, there are also limitations on the lengths of field names. Used to be only six character field names in RPG III. RPG IV continues to allow larger field names all the time."
Migration to RPG IV also becomes a practical matter as the current millennium draws to a close. "RPG IV is a great language to convert to for Y2K conversions, because the language allows for better date and time manipulation than RPG III," Luebbe says. "What may have taken 100 lines of code to do in RPG III, you can now do in maybe one line with RPG IV. We've sold our product to a lot of folks doing Y2K conversion because they want to take advantage of the date and time manipulation features."
Despite the prevalence of visual languages and Java's increasing popularity, Luebbe indicates there is still a strong demand for RPG. "Most people have pretty much made up their mind to migrate from RPG III to RPG IV, rather than skip from RPG to a newer language like Java," he says. "For one, the learning curve is much shorter."
One analyst who agrees with Luebbe's assessment of RPG's health is James Sinur, VP and research director for application development with Gartner Group (Stamford, Conn.). "RPG is a perfectly structured language that doesn't require a sophisticated parser," he says, adding, "It's the perfect language for moving from one version to another."
According to Sinur, programmers must consider several aspects when performing code conversion. The first is to "make sure you have a good test bed, because you need a benchmark," he says. "It's the only way to determine whether you've had a successful conversion." In addition, reference sites must be checked to make sure the new code works. Developers should also "do a pilot with one of the dirtiest pieces of code you've got," he adds.
The latest version of CVTILERPG, 1.42, is designed to take advantage of all ILE RPG IV features when converting RPG III and RPG/400 source code, according to Luebbe. Standard features always performed by CVTILERPG include conversion of: IFxx, DOxx, WHxx, ANDxx and ORxx operations to use the free form expression area; SETON, SETOF and COMP operations to the EVAL operation; END operations to their corresponding ENDxx operations (i.e. END becomes ENDIF); and the constant of '1' to *ON and '0' to *OFF in indicator operations. The utility also generates a summary report of converted member(s), with any exception messages.
There are a number of optional features than can be turned on or off during the conversion process. "Our product lets you control how many of the new RPG IV features you want to take advantage of," Luebbe says. Programmers can later update code that has already been converted.
Though Gartner's Sinur says his client base does not like dealing with invasive procedures like language-to-language conversions, he agrees that RPG is "much more simplistic than parsing C, C++, Java, Assembler and even Cobol." Sinur adds that Cobol to Cobol is the most common form of code conversion, and that conversion of Cobol to Java has taken off as of late. "Even more common than language-to-language conversion is GUI-wrapping," he says, as his clients "like approaches that don't tweak the code much."
February 11, 2019 Timothy Prickett Morgan
If nothing else, the IBM i platform has exhibited extraordinary longevity. One might even say legendary longevity, if you want to take its history all the way back to the System/3 minicomputer from 1969. This is the real starting point in the AS/400 family tree and this is when Big Blue, for very sound legal and technical and marketing reasons, decided to fork its products to address the unique needs of large enterprises (with the System/360 mainframe and its follow-ons) and small and medium businesses (starting with the System/3 and moving on through the System/34, System/32, System/38, and System/36 in the 1970s and early 1980s and passing through the AS/400, AS/400e, iSeries, System i, and then IBM i on Power Systems platforms.
It has been a long run indeed, and many customers who have invested in the platform started way back then and there with the early versions of RPG and moved their applications forward and changed them as their businesses evolved and the depth and breadth of corporate computing changed, moving on up through RPG II, RPG III, RPG IV, ILE RPG, and now RPG free form. Being on this platform for even three decades makes you a relative newcomer.
There is a longer run ahead, since we believe that the companies that are still running IBM i systems are the true diehards, the ones who have no intention of leaving the platform and that, at least according to the survey data we have been privy too, are intending to continue investing in, or even expand their investments in, the IBM i platform.
Thus far, we are not in a recession and heaven willing there will not be one, so the priorities that IBM i shops have are not the ones that they had a decade ago during the height of the Great Recession. Back then, as was the case in just about all IT organizations, IBM i shops were hunkering down and were trying to cut costs in all ways possible, including deferring system upgrades and migrations as well as cutting back on other projects. Only 29 percent of the 750 IBM i shops that participated in the 2019 IBM i Marketplace Survey, which HelpSystems did back in October 2018, were concerned about reducing IT spending. This is a remarkably low level, and I think is indicative of how relatively strong the economy is – excepting some of the fits and starts we saw at the end of 2018 and here in early 2019 that make us nervous and could start putting pressure on things. Here are the top concerns as culled from the survey:
Dealing with the growth in data and in figuring out the analytics to chew on that data ranked a little bit higher on the 2019 IBM i Marketplace Survey than did reducing costs, and I think over the long haul these issues will become more important than modernizing applications and dealing with the IBM i skills shortages that are a perennial worry. Both of these issues are being solved as new programmers and new tools to make new interfaces to database applications are becoming more common and as technologies such as free form RPG, which looks more like Java, Python, and PHP, are being more widely deployed and, importantly, can be picked up more quickly by programmers experienced with these other languages.
Given the nature of the customer base, it seems unlikely to me that security and high availability will not continue to be primary concerns, despite the fact that the IBM i platform is among the most secure platforms on the planet (and not just because it is obscure, but because it is exceedingly difficult to hack) and it has a range of high availability and disaster recovery tools (from IBM, Syncsort, Maxava, and HelpSystems) available for those who want to double up their systems and protect their applications and data. The bar is often higher than simple backup and recovery for many IBM i shops in the banking, insurance, manufacturing, and distribution industries that dominate the platform. These companies can’t have security breaches, and they can’t have downtime.
There is a remarkable amount of stability in the IBM i customer base that we think, at this point, is reflective in the stability of the IBM i platform and Big Blue’s own belief that it needs a healthy IBM i platform to have an overall healthy Power Systems business. We all know that the Power Systems hardware business has just turned in five quarters of revenue growth – something we discussed recently in developing our own revenue model for the Power Systems business – but what we did not know, and what you should know, is that in the second and third quarters of 2018, the IBM i portion of the business grew significantly faster than the overall Power Systems business, and the only reason that this did not happen in the final quarter of 2018 is that sales of IBM i machinery in Q4 2017 was quite strong and represented a very tough compare. The point is, the IBM i business has been raising the Power Systems class average. (These hints about the IBM i business come compliments of Steve Sibley, vice president and offering manager of Cognitive Systems at IBM.)
IBM’s own financial stability of the Power platform – which has been bolstered by a move into Linux clusters for analytics and high performance computing simulation and modeling as well as by the adoption of the HANA in-memory database by SAP customers on big iron machines including Power8 and now Power9 systems – helps IBM i customers feel more confident in investing in the current IBM i platform. The recent evidence from several different surveys, not just the one done by HelpSystems every year, suggests that companies are by and large either continuing to invest in the platform or even in some cases are planning to increase their spending on the IBM i platform in 2019.
As you can see, the pattern of investment plans for the IBM i platform, as shown in the chart above, has not changed very much at all in the past four years. It is a remarkably stable pattern with but a little wiggling here and there that may not even be statistically significant. Just under a quarter of IBM i shops have reported in the past four years that they plan to increase their investment in the platform in each year, and just under half say that they are holding steady. This does not mean that the same companies, year after year, are investing more and other companies are staying pat, year after year. It is far more likely that every handful of years – more like four or five – customers upgrade their systems and expand their capacity, and they then sit tight. The wonder is that the split isn’t showing far fewer companies investing and far more sitting tight. That more than a tenth of the shops don’t know what their plan is as each prior year comes to a close is a bit disturbing, but it is honest and shows that a significant portion of shops have other priorities aside from hardware and operating system upgrades. We have said this before and we will say it again: We think that the people who respond to surveys and read weekly publications focused on the IBM i platform are the most active shops – the ones more likely to stay relatively current on hardware and software. So the pace of adoption for new technologies, and the rate of investment, should be higher than in the actual base, much of which does not change much at all.
So if we had to adjust this data to take on the whole base, there might be far fewer sites that are investing more money, far more companies that are sitting tight, and maybe fewer sites that are contemplating moving off the IBM i platform. I think the distribution of data is probably something like 10 percent of shops have no idea what they are doing investment wise with IBM this year, 5 percent are thinking about moving some or all of their applications to another platform, maybe 10 percent are investing more this year, and the remaining 75 percent are sitting tight. This is just a guess, of course. As far as we can tell, the rate of attrition – how many sites we actually lose each year – just a tad over 1 percent. So the rate of movement of applications off the platform, or incidences of unplugging IBM i databases and applications, may not be anywhere near as high in the overall base as the data above suggests. What is alarming, perhaps, is that the rate of moving some or all applications off the platform is balanced against those who say they will increase investments. Perhaps these are hopeful survey takers, and those who think it is easy to move find it is not and those who think they will find the money to invest will not.
What we do know is that if the rate of application attrition was anywhere near as high as these surveys suggest, then the IBM i business would not be growing, but shrinking. And we know it is not shrinking, so we think there is a disconnect between planning and reality, both on the upside and the downside.
If you drill down into the data for the 2019 IBM i Marketplace Survey, there were 13 percent of shops that said they would be moving some applications to a new platform, and another 9 percent that said they were going to move all of their applications off IBM i. (This number is consistent with the recent ALL400s survey done by John Rockwell.)
Anyway, good luck with that.
Porting applications from one platform to another, of buying a new suite on that new platform, is an exceedingly difficult task. It is not like trying to change a tire while driving down the road, as is a common metaphor, but rather like trying to take the tire off one car moving down the highway and installing it on another car driving beside it in the adjacent lane without crashing either car or smashing into anyone else on the road. Optimism abounds, but when push comes to shove, very few companies try such a maneuver, and when they do, it is usually because there is a corporate mandate, more times than not caused by a merger or acquisition, that pits some other platform against IBM i running on Power Systems. Companies that say they are making such a move off IBM i are sanguine for their own personal reasons, perhaps, but they are not necessarily realistic about how long it might take, what disruption it will cost, and what ultimate benefit, if any, will be realized.
If you do the math on the chart above, eight-tenths of the base has no idea how long a move will take, another 1.7 percent thinks it will take more than five years, and 3 percent say it will take between two years and five years. Only 3.4 percent of the total base say they can do it in under two years. We think all of these numbers are optimistic, and the companies who could easily leave OS/400 and IBM i already did a long time ago and those that are remain have a harder time, not an easier time, moving. If this were not true, the IBM i base would be a hell of a lot smaller than the 120,000 customers we think are out there, based on what Big Blue has told us in the past. This is the difference between fear or pressure or culture and the reality of trying to move a business off one platform and onto another. These moves are always a lot harder than they seem on the front end, and we suspect many of the benefits also don’t materialize for those who do jump platforms.
At the average attrition rate suggested by this survey data – 9 percent move off the platform in somewhere between one year and more than five years, with most companies not being able to see more than five years into the future that is a neat trick – the installed base would shrink dramatically. It is tough to say how far because of the wide range of timeframes in the survey. If it was 9 percent of the base within two years – call it 4.5 percent of the base per year – then within a decade the overall base would shrink from 120,000 IBM i sites worldwide down to about 72,000. This would dramatic indeed. But at a 1 percent attrition rate per year, the base is still at 107,500 unique customers (not sites and not installed machines, both of which are larger) by 2029. We think there is every chance that the attrition rate will actually slow and drop underneath 1 percent as IBM demonstrates commitment to the Power Systems platform and its IBM i operating system. There are always some new customers being added in new markets, to be sure, but the bleed rate (even if it is small) is still probably an order of magnitude larger than the feed rate.
When they do think about making the move, IBM i shops know exactly where they want to go, and this answer has been gradually changing over the years: Linux as an alternative to IBM i is on the rise and Windows Server as an alternative is on the wane. In the latest survey, 52 percent of the companies that said they were moving all or some of their applications to another platform said they were choosing Windows Server, while 34 percent chose Linux. This reflects the relative popularity of Windows Server and Linux in the datacenters of the world at large, and may be tipped just a little more heavily towards Linux compared to the rest of the world. Interestingly, 10 percent of those polled who said they were moving were looking at AIX platforms, and another 4 percent were going upscale to System z mainframes – as unlikely as this may seem. Platforms tend to roll downhill; they do not usually defy gravity like that.
The thing about such surveys is that they show intent, not action. We often intend to do a lot more than we actually can accomplish, and moving platforms after spending decades of building up expertise is not usually a very smart move unless the platform is in real trouble – like the Itanium systems from Hewlett Packard Enterprise running OpenVMS or HP-UX or the HP 3000s running MPE or the Sparc systems from Oracle running Solaris. These were once great platforms with huge installed bases and tremendous revenue streams, but now, IBM is the last of these Unix and proprietary platforms with its Power Systems line. And it is by far the biggest and for sure the only one showing any growth.RELATED STORIES
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I was a latecomer to The Elder Scrolls series. As someone who has clocked countless hours on various RPGs, it was not until October 2013 that I directed my attention towards Oblivion. Picking up the Game of the Year edition six years after release it was safe to assume that most if not all bugs and irregularities were patched. Oh boy was I wrong … so very wrong. What awaited me in Cyrodiil was nothing short of abject madness. An atmosphere of uneasiness accompanied me throughout my entire first playthrough. Bethesda’s efforts to achieve a photorealistic world and create both authentic and believable inhabitants led to many uncanny results. While returning to this game for more of an insight into its insanity, I realized that this game does horror so unintentionally that it is genuinely unnerving. This is even before I played the Shivering Isles; the DLC that is really supposed to be the most overt display of insanity in Oblivion.
The character creation screen is one of the most cherished features of the RPG genre. You let your imagination run wild as you fine-tune your hero’s face just to end up creating a battered slab of meat that somewhat resembles a human’s. When characters’ faces in Oblivion attempt to show any discernible emotion they twist into horrifying grimaces. At the best of times, they look like potatoes with wide-eyed smiles carved into them. In addition to the faces of Oblivion, the whole world just feels like a fever dream hellscape conceived by an AI’s idea of what a medieval fantasy world should be.
The AI constantly glitches out and you are left watching two NPCs talk at each other about various conflicting topics concerning the realm. These conversations range from completely nonsensical to manic insanity with about eight different emotions being conveyed all at one time. Coupled with the fact that these NPCs are most likely portrayed by the same voice actor/actress further adds to the overall strangeness of the world.
The landscape inhabited by the NPCs also plays a large part to the strangeness of Oblivion. The environment is beautiful don’t get me wrong, but its glossy appearance and art style gives it a hazy, almost psychedelic quality. Structures found in-game look like they were sculpted from wax which gives an unnatural sheen to most surfaces. Cyrodiil gives the impression of an AI’s idea of what a medieval fantasy world should be. It gives off a normal appearance yet it feels just a bit off thus creating an uncanniness for the player. The game’s music from Jeremy Soule’s beautiful, calming Harvest Dawn to the agitated Death Knell or even the survival-horror sounding Wind from the Depths all add to Oblivion’s unique atmosphere right up until they appear abruptly at the most inappropriate of times.
You could be having the most mundane of conversations right before the fight music initiates leaving the player in a sense of paranoia wondering where in Oblivion the threat is coming from. When the music isn’t playing entirely unannounced it can also be in response to an Imperial guard or NPC that has followed you halfway across with world … and into another dimension, because you stole fruit from them. As you traverse this world you will most likely encounter NPCs fleeing from absolutely nothing. Spouting incoherent, panic-stricken phrases before instantly returning to a tranquil state.
I have spent long stretches of time playing Oblivion frantically searching areas for any sort of danger that may be in the vicinity yet finding no discernible explanation for the NPC’s erratic behavior. Often times you can be having a pleasant conversation with an NPC but as soon as you exhaust the dialogue options their face morphs into a sneer before hurling insults at you. It feels like everyone in Cyrodiil has a schizoid nature ready to boil to the surface at any moment.
The voice acting at times sounds like the NPCs are desperately trying to come across as normal. Let’s not forget their creepy smiles and animations where their head would follow you slowly, rotating 150 degrees as they wander down the street. You can really feel their stare burning into your soul. Imagine the music video for Black Hole Sun by Soundgarden but make it a 200-hour fantasy RPG version and add a few Oblivion gates … actually, it’s EXACTLY like Black Hole Sun. In addition to this, the dialogue system insistently zooms in rapidly on characters as soon as the conversation is initiated. The player can be dragged away from what they’re doing as your focus is shifted to an NPC that has just materialized next to you. Oblivion’s unintentional mannequin-like NPCs instill a powerful sense of dread.
This is not a game for anyone with even mild Automatonophobia. The cause of this strangeness is a result of a clash between procedurally generated content with hand‐authored content. Meaning you can have two different scripts interacting at any one time creating logical instability. There are two aspects necessary for believability: “a) the user’s expectation of a performance and b) the fulfillment of that expectation.” This unpredictability makes the seemingly coherent world logic collapse as the authenticity is juuuuust a little bit askew, leading to an uncanny impression imparted onto the player.
While an ambitious effort from Bethesda, I believe that even the glitches and programming errors really add to the fantasy element of Oblivion. It creates a world we cannot make sense of or rationalize with; a truly unique, fantasy experience like no other. It feels truly otherworldly in comparison to Skyrim which goes for a more grittier art style. Skyrim removed the randomness of conversation by having only scripted character interactions. Character’s do not interact unless they have a specific script. The overactive AI scattered throughout Cyrodiil will always be memorable for better or worse as their arbitrary interactions with both the player and NPCs run completely contrary to what we have come to expect from more polished AI systems. This unpredictability correlates to an unnerving sensation for the player and with this Bethesda has unintentionally carved out their own little piece of the uncanny valley.
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IQN [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
IRS [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
ISA [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
ISACA [4 Certification Exam(s) ]
ISC2 [6 Certification Exam(s) ]
ISEB [24 Certification Exam(s) ]
Isilon [4 Certification Exam(s) ]
ISM [6 Certification Exam(s) ]
iSQI [7 Certification Exam(s) ]
ITEC [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
Juniper [64 Certification Exam(s) ]
LEED [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
Legato [5 Certification Exam(s) ]
Liferay [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
Logical-Operations [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
Lotus [66 Certification Exam(s) ]
LPI [24 Certification Exam(s) ]
LSI [3 Certification Exam(s) ]
Magento [3 Certification Exam(s) ]
Maintenance [2 Certification Exam(s) ]
McAfee [8 Certification Exam(s) ]
McData [3 Certification Exam(s) ]
Medical [69 Certification Exam(s) ]
Microsoft [374 Certification Exam(s) ]
Mile2 [3 Certification Exam(s) ]
Military [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
Misc [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
Motorola [7 Certification Exam(s) ]
mySQL [4 Certification Exam(s) ]
NBSTSA [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
NCEES [2 Certification Exam(s) ]
NCIDQ [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
NCLEX [2 Certification Exam(s) ]
Network-General [12 Certification Exam(s) ]
NetworkAppliance [39 Certification Exam(s) ]
NI [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
NIELIT [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
Nokia [6 Certification Exam(s) ]
Nortel [130 Certification Exam(s) ]
Novell [37 Certification Exam(s) ]
OMG [10 Certification Exam(s) ]
Oracle [279 Certification Exam(s) ]
P&C [2 Certification Exam(s) ]
Palo-Alto [4 Certification Exam(s) ]
PARCC [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
PayPal [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
Pegasystems [12 Certification Exam(s) ]
PEOPLECERT [4 Certification Exam(s) ]
PMI [15 Certification Exam(s) ]
Polycom [2 Certification Exam(s) ]
PostgreSQL-CE [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
Prince2 [6 Certification Exam(s) ]
PRMIA [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
PsychCorp [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
PTCB [2 Certification Exam(s) ]
QAI [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
QlikView [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
Quality-Assurance [7 Certification Exam(s) ]
RACC [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
Real-Estate [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
RedHat [8 Certification Exam(s) ]
RES [5 Certification Exam(s) ]
Riverbed [8 Certification Exam(s) ]
RSA [15 Certification Exam(s) ]
Sair [8 Certification Exam(s) ]
Salesforce [5 Certification Exam(s) ]
SANS [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
SAP [98 Certification Exam(s) ]
SASInstitute [15 Certification Exam(s) ]
SAT [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
SCO [10 Certification Exam(s) ]
SCP [6 Certification Exam(s) ]
SDI [3 Certification Exam(s) ]
See-Beyond [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
Siemens [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
Snia [7 Certification Exam(s) ]
SOA [15 Certification Exam(s) ]
Social-Work-Board [4 Certification Exam(s) ]
SpringSource [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
SUN [63 Certification Exam(s) ]
SUSE [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
Sybase [17 Certification Exam(s) ]
Symantec [134 Certification Exam(s) ]
Teacher-Certification [4 Certification Exam(s) ]
The-Open-Group [8 Certification Exam(s) ]
TIA [3 Certification Exam(s) ]
Tibco [18 Certification Exam(s) ]
Trainers [3 Certification Exam(s) ]
Trend [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
TruSecure [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
USMLE [1 Certification Exam(s) ]
VCE [6 Certification Exam(s) ]
Veeam [2 Certification Exam(s) ]
Veritas [33 Certification Exam(s) ]
Vmware [58 Certification Exam(s) ]
Wonderlic [2 Certification Exam(s) ]
Worldatwork [2 Certification Exam(s) ]
XML-Master [3 Certification Exam(s) ]
Zend [6 Certification Exam(s) ]
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